This week, the focus in the UK will be on CPI data for November out on Wednesday. As usual, we'll be paying attention to services inflation, which we estimate to come in at 6.6%, showing little near-term progress. That may help markets ease some of the rate cut bets in the UK and help the Pound.

We still think services inflation in the UK will ease to around 4% by next summer, allowing the BoE to start cutting, but the Pound has decent room to benefit from some hawkish repricing in the short run.

Last week’s 0.8550 lows in EUR/GBP may well be retested by the end of December.