We expect 2024 to kick off with budget battles and the threat of a two-step government shutdown. We expect the rise in unemployment to become more pronounced and culminate in a recession in the first half of the year. This should convince the FOMC to pivot from an aggressive hiking cycle to a cautious cutting cycle by the middle of the year.

In November, the Americans will vote for the next President, the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate. At the time of writing, it looks like we are heading for a major regime shift in the United States that would have major implications for the rest of the world.