Oil prices sank as a surge in US gasoline and distillate inventories created a fear that demand is on a shaky footing. The largest weekly gain in product stockpiles triggered concerns that US demand is on the slide.

We expect global demand to increase by some 1.2+ million b/d in 2024. At the same time, we hypothesize that Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ peers will stay true to their commitments to extend the current production cuts, for as long as is needed to lift prices.

We project that the oil market will run a deficit for 2024 as a whole, with balances starting off flat in the first few months of the year and posting significant deficits thereafter.