Rate expectations were not moved by slightly hotter-than-expected US CPI, and support for the Dollar has mostly come through the risk-sentiment channel.

The conditions for a higher Dollar this month are surely there, but we have observed numerous indications that markets remain reluctant to make short-term USD bullish positions coexist with the longer-lasting view that US rates will take the Dollar structurally lower by year-end.

The chances of rangebound trading until we receive clearer messages by activity data and the Fed are high.