If Trump keeps his hands off the Fed and does not pursue a USD-weakening intervention policy, USD-supportive factors will prevail in the short term. Therefore, we will have to watch whether Trump makes credible statements on Fed independence and USD exchange rate policy during the election campaign. 

At the same time, however, we need to keep an eye on whether a Trump victory could actually lead to a lasting change in the US political system, i.e. whether his policies would be relevant for more than four years. If the campaign makes such a scenario seem likely, a higher probability of a Trump victory would not necessarily lead to USD strength.