We expect the SNB to deliver its first 25 bps cut in June but see risks tilted towards earlier. Overall, we see relative rates as fairly neutral for the cross. We no longer expect the SNB to intervene to strengthen the CHF.

We remain bullish on the CHF on the back of fundamentals and a global growth slowdown but acknowledge that the tailwinds will likely be more modest in 2024 than in 2023 given both the halt to FX intervention and smaller inflation differentials between Switzerland and G10 space. We target the cross at 0.9300 in 6-12M.

Risks to the forecast include a sharp reacceleration in global growth and SNB FX intervention to weaken the CHF.