Even if inflation has shown a promising downward trend in recent months, the remaining path to the 2% target is likely to be bumpy. In any case, structural factors such as ongoing de-globalisation and the energy transition should drive up costs for companies and ultimately consumer price inflation. 

If the effects of a particularly tight labour market also take effect, this is a further argument for upside risks and inflation settling at a higher level. This should make it difficult for the ECB to cut interest rates significantly, as many expect.