Ms. Claudia Sheinbaum from the Morena party is favourite to win the presidential election scheduled on 2nd June, benefitting from the high approval rating of incumbent president Mr. Lopez Obrador. However, we expect gradual MXN weakening during 2024 due to some uncertainties over the economic policies to be adopted by the next administration.

While policy continuity has been signalled, Ms. Sheinbaum’s authority might be constrained by the influence of the incumbent president and other Morena party leaders. On top of that, likely, the Morena party will not have the required two-thirds majority in Congress to pass reforms.