The outcome of the US presidential election could see the USD standing on a firmer footing than we have pencilled in.

If Trump is re-elected, his comeback will likely lead to more inflationary policies, a renewed trade war between the US and abroad with China in focus, heightened geopolitical risks and higher US government deficits.

For the USD, a Trump re-election will likely support the USD in the short term due to trade and geopolitical tensions, while a weaker USD than we have pencilled could happen especially if sovereign debt concerns materialise.