We forecast the Eurozone’s CPI numbers on Friday to come in line with consensus: 2.5% headline and 2.9% core rate. A drop in core inflation below 3.0% may prompt ECB doves to raise their voices, but the consensus within the Governing Council appears directed at waiting for early 2024 wage data before taking steps to ease policy. 

We expect a good week for the Dollar thanks to a strong PCE on Thursday. Before then, EUR/USD may struggle to find much sense of direction and keep hovering around the 1.0800 gravity line.

One event to watch today is ECB President Christine Lagarde participating in a plenary debate in the EU Parliament. Politicians generally put pressure for an earlier untightening of financial conditions, but Lagarde may not derail much from her hawkish tone before seeing February’s CPI numbers.