We continue to expect positive wage negotiation results this week to give the green light for the BoJ to begin to tighten policy next week. 

To dampen the market impact from exiting negative rates and yield curve control, the BoJ will be keen to emphasize that it will be a gradual process of policy normalization unlike the aggressive rate hike cycles implemented by other major central banks in recent years.

If the BoJ delivers cautious forward guidance alongside hiking rates that casts doubt on the need for further hikes, it could result in the Yen weakening further in the near term by encouraging the use of Yen-funded carry trades.