Eurozone PMIs continued to paint a grim picture for the region’s manufacturing outlook. That is not hugely relevant for the FX market, anyway. The soft economic outlook in the Eurozone has been priced in for a while, and with markets relatively confident about a June European Central Bank cut (23 bps priced in), it’s mostly Dollar rate expectations that are set to keep moving EUR/USD.

It remains unlikely that the pair can enjoy a sustained recovery without a decline in USD rates, but Turhusday’s positive Dollar reaction to US data appeared overdone considering the recent narrative by the Fed, and we don’t feel EUR/USD should fall much further before bottoming out.