Oil markets are now succumbing to a reversal of systematic flows, TD Securities analysts suggest.

Upside for Oil prices is likely capped

“With Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) buying running its course, the market failed to maintain the required upside momentum and in turn has started liquidating their length. CTAs are now targeting a reduction of some 12% and 8% of the historical max position in WTI and Brent crude respectively.”

“We are not anticipating another rout in prices as supply risks are back in focus with tensions building in the Middle East between Israel and Lebanon, while further ship attacks in the Red Sea reignite concerns.”

“A renewed increase in our energy supply risk indicator can support price action in the near term. Yet, we still argue the upside is likely capped by increasing global supply and potential OPEC+ increases, which puts 2025 balances in question.”