NZD/USD edged lower under its 200-day moving average (0.6071), BBH analysts note.

35% of firms expect a deterioration in the economic outlook

“The NZ Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) declined in Q2 and points to a continued slowing in the New Zealand economy over the coming year.”

“A net 35% of firms expect a deterioration in the general economic outlook over the coming months on a seasonally adjusted basis vs. 25% in Q1. This reinforces the case for the RBNZ to start easing earlier than they project which can further weigh on NZD. The RBNZ has a first policy rate cut penciled-in for Q3 2025.”

“In contrast, the swaps market has a November cut more than fully priced in.”