Price action in the base metal complex has successfully fended off Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) selling pressure in Copper, TDS Senior Commodity Strategist Ryan McKay notes.

Traders cover their recent Copper shorts

“With China's third plenum on the radar in the coming weeks, markets are keenly focused on the potential for fresh stimulus in the Middle Kingdom that could potentially drive commodity demand. In this sense, top Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) traders have covered their recent shorts overnight, and while the nearest CTA trigger remains to the downside, there is a more of a margin of safety with the trigger sitting at $9,597/t.”

“With our gauge of global commodity demand continuing to weaken, while depressed premiums and surging inventories in the Middle Kingdom argue against fundamental tightness, there are plenty of potential catalysts that could still see prices ease once again.”

“With still bloated money manager positioning on Comex, the lack of evidence supporting current physical tightness, or a disappointment on potential Chinese stimulus, can continue to see these money manager positions unwind.”