The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed overnight but the softer US Dollar (USD) tone is helping the CAD hold gains below the recent short-term range low, suggesting a bit more strength may develop in the short run, Scotiabank’s chief FX strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Bears set to test the 1.3675 support

“Spot remains above our short-term fair value estimate (which has fallen to 1.3626 this morning, from 1.3650 yesterday). Factors (risk appetite, for example) continue to shift favourably for the CAD, which should keep scope for USD gains limited. CAD gains will put incremental pressure on the record mass of CAD short positions that have accumulated in recent weeks.”

“Spot losses are showing some signs of stalling around the figure in early trade but USDCAD’s drop through support at 1.3725 (retracement and 40-day MA—now initial resistance) imply further downside pressure on the USD towards 1.3675 (minor retracement support) and, potentially, 1.36.”