The production losses in Libya are spreading rapidly: According to media reports, oil production has now been cut back by up to 700 thousand barrels per day and all export ports in the east of the country are closed, Commerzbank’s analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Shortfall may rise to 1 million barrels per day

“Fears are being voiced that the shortfall could rise to 1 million barrels per day. OPEC member Iraq is also set to produce less oil in future. During a visit by OPEC Secretary General Al Ghais, the Prime Minister of Iraq – as well as the government in Kazakhstan at the beginning of the week – once again promised to comply with his announced production cuts in future.”

“However, both countries have continued to produce above target until recently, despite newly presented plans, which undermines the motivation and discipline of the other OPEC+ countries in the long term.”