USD/CHF recovered to 0.8520 after touching the 0.84 low on August 29, a level last seen at the start of the year, DBS Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee notes.

Switzerland’s growth outlook to influence SNB’s inflation assessment

“On August 30, Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan said Switzerland’s moderate growth outlook, along with gains in the CHF, would influence the central bank’s inflation assessment. Jordan also highlighted that the strength of the CHF poses a challenge to the Swiss industry, particularly given the weak demand from Europe.”

“In June, SNB forecasted inflation at 1% or the mid-point of its 1-3% target range through 1Q27. As a result, the market will be closely watching today’s CPI and GDP data for any downside surprises. The consensus is that CPI inflation declined to 1.2% YoY in August from 1.3% in July and that GDP growth improved to 1.5% YoY in 2Q24 from 0.6% in 1Q24.”

“The OIS market has priced in a 126% probability of a third 25 bps rate cut to 1.00% at the SNB meeting on September 26.”