EURUSD is all but unchanged, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

US event risk and ECB dull interest

“Spot levels have held close to yesterday’s closing rate with no incentive to extend ranges ahead of US event risks and the ECB on Thursday. Germany released final August CPI data which was unchanged from the preliminary data (1.9% Y/Y). A 25bps cut is widely expected Thursday and fully priced in. President Lagarde may be reluctant to give much at all away in terms of the outlook for further easing at this point.”

“Negative daily and weekly price signals in EURUSD over the past couple of weeks have negated the positive undertone in spot but, with trend momentum signals s till leaning bullish, these developments have not triggered any significant reversal in the EUR—at least not yet.”

“That is clearly a risk but, for now, the EUR is well-supported in the low 1.10s, close to the 1.1040 level which is the 38.2% retracement of the August rally. A clearer push below here targets the mid/upper 1.09s. Resistance is 1.1075/85.”