The Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded by 5.9% to 106.7 in the past 1.5 months, following its 4.8% decline to 100.8 in 3Q24, DBS’ Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee notes.

Trump Trade may lose momentum

“The 107.3 high in October 2023 will be a significant resistance level, and DXY may correct lower if the Trump Trade loses momentum. The rallies in the S&P 500 Index and Bitcoin stalled around 6k and 90k, respectively, last week.”

“The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model projected US GDP growth slowing to 2.5% in 4Q24 from 2.8% in 3Q24. The US Treasury 2Y yield entered a 4.24-4.37% range last week. Since Trump’s victory, the futures market has reduced the odds of a December Fed cut to 58% from 80%.”

“On November 21, let’s see if Fed Governor Michelle Bowman joins her colleague’s optimism for inflation to return to the 2% target and rates to decline further towards neutral in 2025. Bowman dissented September’s 50 bps cut but supported November’s 25 bps cut.”