The US Dollar (USD) eased overnight in line with our earlier caution for risks of technical pullback. DXY was last at 106.26 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Near term risks remain skewed lower

“Bullish momentum on daily chart eased while rise fell from near overbought conditions. Potential bearish divergence may be forming on daily MACD. Near term risks remain skewed towards a technical retracement lower. Support at 105.60 (76.4% fibo) and 104.50/60 levels (21DMA, 61.8% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low). Resistance at 107, 107.40 (2023 high).”

“Near term, economic calendar is quiet for US. Prelim PMIs, Uni of Michigan sentiment data are out on Fri before core PCE (next Wed). Softer print can add to USD correction while a firmer print should see USD dips finding support. Elsewhere, markets may also pay attention to Trump nomination, with special focus on who takes the Treasury.”