The European natural gas market has also strengthened with TTF briefly trading above EUR50/MWh, ING’s commodity analysts note.

EU gas storage can fall at a quicker pace

“Gazprom’s transit deal with Ukraine expired at the end of 2024 and as a result, Europe has lost around 15bcm of annual gas supply. However, this should be widely priced in, given that Ukraine made it clear for over a year that it did not intend to extend the transit deal.”

“Forecasts for colder weather in early January mean that gas storage could fall at a quicker pace, leaving storage to fall further below the five-year average. EU storage is 70% full, down from 85% last year and below the five-year average of 76%.”