This week's EUR/USD bounce has been pretty muted so far. As above, there is no way investors can expect to hear an 'all-clear' signal on tariffs. And keeping trading partners off balance/guessing is a tactic that kept the dollar reasonably well bid during Trump's last tariff regime in 2018-19, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD may explore the lower end of a 1.0350-1.0450 range

“Another reason traders may not want to reduce their euro short positions is ahead of tomorrow's release of the eurozone flash PMis for January. Another dire set of confidence readings will only encourage the ECB to look through the tick-up in inflation and commit to a 100bp+ easing cycle this year.”

“EUR/USD looks like it might explore the lower end of a 1.0350-1.0450 range today should Trump have something more to say about tariffs. But the next big move may not emerge until the FOMC meeting next Wednesday, the US December core PCE deflator next Friday, and that seemingly 1 February tariff deadline.”