The European Union is reportedly proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian Aluminum to the bloc, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

EU sanctions are likely to spur LME prices

“The proposal calls for an import quota for a year before the complete ban comes into effect. Although the EU continues to import Russian Aluminum, volumes have fallen over the past two years, with European buyers self-sanctioning since the invasion of Ukraine.”

“The EU imported more than 320kt of unwrought Aluminum from Russia in the first 11 months of 2024, accounting for around 6% of total imports, according to Un Comtrade data, a relatively small fraction of the global Aluminum market.”

“Meanwhile, Russia has steadily increased sales to Asian consumers over the last three years, particularly China. If enacted, EU sanctions are likely to spur LME prices. It is not a given that the EU will agree to the package. The proposal will require backing from all member states and may still change before being formally proposed to members, according to reports.”