Australia’s Q4 CPI was soft and all but locks-in an RBA rate cut at the next meeting February 18, BBH FX strategists report.

Sluggish Chinese economic activity to weigh on AUD/USD

“Headline CPI matched consensus at 2.5% y/y vs. 2.8% in Q3, reflecting large falls in electricity (-25.2%) and Automotive fuel (-7.9%). The more policy-relevant trimmed mean CPI inflation undershot expectations eased to a three-year low at 3.2% y/y (consensus: 3.3%, RBA projection: 3.4%) vs. 3.6% in Q3.”

“Markets moved to virtually fully price-in (vs. 80% yesterday) a 25bps RBA cut to 4.10% in February and a total of 85bps of easing over the next 12 months. RBA/Fed policy trend and sluggish Chinese economic activity can further weigh on AUD/USD.”