Copper prices continue to rally, but our advanced positioning analytics suggest that no reasonable scenario for prices will catalyze CTA buying activity over the coming sessions, TDS’s Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Buying to remain modest at best

“A big uptape could lead to some buying activity by this time next week, but our estimates suggest it would remain modest at best, which ultimately places the onus on other cohorts to keep prices from finding a local top.”

“Discretionary trader participation has also picked up lately, suggesting the latest strength in prices may be supported by additional buying activity from this cohort, but our estimates suggest it has now grown to its highest levels since the squeeze on the Comex Copper arb last year.”