CAD and MXN depreciated at the back end of last week, but are still not pricing 25% tariffs as the baseline, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

25% tariffs amay be averted

"The FX market saw Mexico as more likely to avert tariffs over Canada a month ago and appears to have a similar feeling now, having penalised the loonie more than the peso in the past week. Today’s events will be inevitably binary for FX, but given that markets are still leaning towards another delay in tariffs, there are more downside risks than upside risks for CAD and MXN today."

"USD/CAD and USD/MXN are currently trading 2.5% and 3.5% off their 3 February highs. We’ll be looking for moves above 1.460 and 21.0 as key indicators of a pessimistic shift in sentiment today. Our base case remains that 25% tariffs will be averted, although we admit it remains a very close call."