(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) April 106.0
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) April 109.2
06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) April 0.9% 0.5%
06:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) April 1.9%
06:45 France Trade Balance, bln April -4.58 -4.0
08:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations Quarter II 1.9%
09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter I 0.9%
09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter I 0.3%
12:30 Canada Unemployment rate May 6.8% 6.8%
12:30 Canada Employment May -19.7 10
12:30 U.S. Average workweek May 34.5 34.5
12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings May 0.1% 0.2%
12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls 223 225
12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate May 5.4% 5.4%
16:30 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak
19:00 U.S. Consumer Credit April 20.52 16.25
The dollar strengthened significantly against the euro, having played with all the previously lost ground, due to the publication of unemployment data, as well as the expectations of tomorrow's employment report in the United States. As it became known, initial applications for unemployment benefits, a measure of layoffs throughout the US, fell by 8 thousand. And seasonally adjusted reached 276 thousand. For the week ended May 30. Economists had expected 279 thousand. Primary applications. The ministry also reported that 284 thousand. Applications have been filed for the previous week, replacing it with an initial assessment of 282 thousand. The four-week moving average circulation increased by 2750 to 274, 75 thousand. The report showed that the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits, It fell by 30 thousand. up to 2.2 million. - the lowest level since November 2000 - for the week ended May 23.
In the course of trade is also affected by expectations the publication of the report on employment in the US non-farm payrolls. According to forecasts, in May, the number of employees increased by 225 thousand. Against 223 thousand. In April. As for unemployment, it is expected to remain unchanged (5.4%).
Meanwhile, market participants continue to follow the news on Greece. According to recent reports, the Greek Prime Minister Tsipras told the ministers that the position of the creditors is unacceptable. On Friday, the Greek Parliament will discuss the proposal of creditors. Rumors that Tsipras may require a vote of confidence from Parliament, were not confirmed.
Minor influenced by the statements of the IMF. In its annual assessment of the state of the US economy the IMF lowered its GDP forecast for this year from 3.1% to 2.5%, citing the substantial uncertainty about the sustainability of economic growth. The Fund has also lowered the GDP forecast for 2016 from 3.1% to 3%. Also, the IMF expects that the Fed will not raise rates until the 1st half of 2016.
The pound retreated from a session high against the dollar, falling below $ 1.5400. Earlier, the pound had supported the outcome of the meeting of the Central Bank of England, which left unchanged the key interest is placed on the level of 0.5%, and the amount of the asset purchase program, which amounts to 375 billion British. It is worth emphasizing, the discount rate was left at a record low for 75 consecutive month. The members of the MPC voted unanimously to keep the old monetary course. Hopes for a rate increase were dispelled after the results of the 1st quarter economic growth slowed to 0.3%. Inflation, meanwhile, fell below zero after a sharp reduction in price of energy.
A little influenced by data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). As it became known, in the UK the number of new car registrations increased 39 th consecutive month in May. Car sales rose 2.4 percent compared with the previous year to 198,706 units in May. In general, registration reached 1.11 million units in 2015, an increase of 5.7 percent, as the market has stabilized. There was a marked rise in four times the demand for cars with ultra-low emissions (ULEV) in January-May, suggesting that consumers are increasingly aware of the benefits of driving ULEV.
Pressure on the pound have expectations of tomorrow's publication of statistics on the US labor market.
EUR/USD: $1.1100(E1.5bn), $1.1145(E691mn), $1.1195-1.1205(E690mn), $1.1220(E350mn)
USD/JPY: Y123.50($1.03bn), Y124.00($686mn), Y125.00($495mn)
GBP/USD: $1.5150-60(Gbp445mn)
EUR/GBP: GBP0.7100(E300mn), GBP0.7300(E300mn)
AUD/USD: $0.7650(A$455mn), $0.7700(A$571mn), $0.7725(A$221mn), $0.7750(A$536mn), $0.7780(A$391mn), $0.7790-0.7800(A$580mn)
USD/CAD: C$1.2350($471mn), C$1.2600($340mn)
EUR/USD: $1.1100(E1.5bn), $1.1145(E691mn), $1.1195-1.1205(E690mn), $1.1220(E350mn)
USD/JPY: Y123.50($1.03bn), Y124.00($686mn), Y125.00($495mn)
GBP/USD: $1.5150-60(Gbp445mn)
EUR/GBP: GBP0.7100(E300mn), GBP0.7300(E300mn)
AUD/USD: $0.7650(A$455mn), $0.7700(A$571mn), $0.7725(A$221mn), $0.7750(A$536mn), $0.7780(A$391mn), $0.7790-0.7800(A$580mn)
USD/CAD: C$1.2350($471mn), C$1.2600($340mn)
The Australian Bureau of Statistics released its trade data for Australia on Thursday. Australia's trade deficit widened to A$3.89 billion in April from A$1.23 billion in March, missing expectations for a rise to a deficit of A$2.3 billion. March's figure was revised up from a deficit of A$1.32 billion.
The increase in deficit was driven by lower export prices of key commodities such as iron ore and coal continued to weigh.
Exports plunged by 6% in April, while imports increased by 4%, driven by a 69% gain in the machinery and industrial equipment.
The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book on Wednesday. The report showed an optimistic picture of the U.S. economy despite the mixed U.S. economic data in the second quarter.
According to the report, "overall economic activity expanded during the reporting period from early April to late May".
The growth was characterized as "moderate" and "modest" in the most districts.
Consumer spending rose across all districts except Richmond, according to the Beige Book.
Employment and wages increased slightly, while prices "were stable or ticked up".
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday that there is no reason to be optimistic that a deal between Greece and its creditors can be reached soon. He added that new reform proposals submitted by the Greek government indicated only little changes.
"I have no information that anything decisive has changed in terms of substance," Schaeuble said.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard changed its tone on the Fed's monetary policy outlook on Wednesday. His tone is cautious now.
"I think that will all be transient and it will turn out that we'll have stronger data later in the year and that will enable us to get going with the normalization process. But I would like to see that confirmed in the near term so that we can get on with our normalization process," Bullard said.
The St. Louis Federal Reserve president pointed out that the weak U.S. economic growth in the first quarter was temporary, but he added that he would like to see stronger data.
Bullard is not a voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee this year.
EUR / USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1381 (3354)
$1.1348 (6585)
$1.1299 (5747)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1267
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1204 (2610)
$1.1153 (4682)
$1.1080 (6455)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 5 is 119458 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1300 (6585);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 5 is 134397 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0800 (8453);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.13 versus 1.13 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 3
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.5500 (2347)
$1.5401 (1449)
$1.5402 (2118)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.5321
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.5295 (2329)
$1.5198 (2123)
$1.5100 (1479)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 5 is 36251 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5700 (2606);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 5 is 52626 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5000 (3088);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.45 versus 1.45 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 3
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,1267 +1,03%
GBP/USD $1,5331 -0,07%
USD/CHF Chf0,934 +0,11%
USD/JPY Y124,26 +0,14%
EUR/JPY Y140,01 +1,18%
GBP/JPY Y190,51 +0,08%
AUD/USD $0,7778 +0,12%
NZD/USD $0,7151 -0,36%
USD/CAD C$1,2451 +0,39%
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
01:30 Australia Trade Balance April -1.32 -2.3
01:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M April 0.3% 0.4%
01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y April 4.5%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index May 1.6%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y May 8.5%
11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5%
11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375
11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 2222 2208
12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Finally) Quarter I -2.1% -2.9%
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims May 282 279
14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index May 58.2 55.5
23:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index May 47