• • Supports the increase in rates is later this year

  • The Fed should tighten policy in 6-9 months

  • There is no reason to now, the Fed continued to stimulate the economy

  • U.S. GDP is likely to grow by 2.5% to 3% in 2012 and 2013

  • Inflation is likely to be 2% in 2012 and 2.3% in 2013

  • Unemployment rate falls to 7% by the end of 2013

  • Extremely mild Fed policy leads to higher prices

  • Further support for the Fed to be justified only if the economy weakens

  • Each member of the FOMC adheres to his own opinion

  • Decisions of the FOMC shall collectively

The dollar fell versus most major counterparts as data showed the most Americans since January filed for jobless benefits last week, supporting the argument that monetary policy should stay stimulative to spur growth.

The euro strengthened versus the dollar as Italy’s 10-year bonds rose for a second day, pushing yields down from an almost two-month high of 5.73 percent reached yesterday. The nation sold 4.88 euros ($6.4 billion) of securities, close to its 5 billion-euro maximum target for the sale.

The yen dropped versus major peers as Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said policy makers will “pursue powerful easing.” Defeating deflation and achieving sustained growth are important tasks for the central bank, Shirakawa said today in Tokyo.

The pound fell as a result of published data on the trade balance. Sharp fall in exports to countries outside the EU in February, partly because of falling car exports in January increased the trade deficit. Merchandise trade deficit widened to 8.772 billion pounds in February to 7.883 billion pounds in January, far more than analysts had expected.

Offers $1.3220 area, more at $1.3240/50 with stops above.

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3105, $1.3120, $1.3150, $1.3170, $1.3175

USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.45, Y81.50, Y82.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8320

USD/CHF  Chf0.9200, Chf0.9095

AUD/USD $1.0250, $1.0300

GBP/USD $1.5905

EUR/USD
Offers $1.3240/50, $1.3220, $1.3195/200, $1.3180, $1.3165
Bids $1.3095/90, $1.3080, $1.3060/50

GBP/USD
Offers $1.6090/100, $1.6070/80, $1.6065, $1.6050, $1.6000/10, $1.5975/85
Bids $1.5890/80, $1.5855/50

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0490/00, $1.0460/70, $1.0445/50, $1.0420
Bids $1.0350/40, $1.0305/00, $1.0255/45, $1.0225, $1.0200

EUR/JPY
Offers Y107.45/50, Y107.15/20, Y106.95/00, Y106.75/80, Y106.60/70
Bids Y106.00, Y105.50/40, Y104.75/70, Y104.50

USD/JPY
Offers Y82.00, Y81.85/90, Y81.60/65, Y81.45/50
Bids Y80.50, Y80.30/25, Y80.10/00, Y79.80/75

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8320/25, stg0.8300, stg0.8275/80
Bids stg0.8225/20, stg0.8200, stg0.8180/75

Resistance 3: Y82.55 (Apr 6 high)
Resistance 2: Y81.90 (Apr 10 high, МА (200) for Н1, border of the down channel from Apr 2)
Resistance 1: Y81.15/20 (session high, Apr 9 low)
Current price: Y80.96
Support 1: Y80.60 (Apr 11 low, low of March)
Support 1: Y80.20 (Feb 29 low, border of the down channel from Apr 2)
Support 3: Y80.00 (Feb 28 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9250 (Mar 16 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9210/20 (area of Apr 5, 9-10 lows)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9170 (resistance line from Apr 10)
Current price: Chf0.9155
Support 1: Chf0.9140/30 (МА (200) for Н1, Apr 11 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9110 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9000-Chf0,9220)
Support 3: Chf0.9090 (61,8 %% FIBO Chf0,9000-Chf0,9220)

Resistance 3 : $1.6130 (November’2011 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.6060 (Apr 2 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5960 (61,8 % FIBO $1,6060-$ 1,5800, session high)
Current price: $1.5958
Support 1 : $1.5940 (earlier resistance, Apr 11 high)
Support 2 : $1.5900 (session low, МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.5850 (Apr 11 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3250 (61,8 % FIBO $1,3390-$ 1,3030)
Resistance 2 : $1.3210/20 (area МА (200) for Н4, 50,0 % FIBO $1,3390-$ 1,3030)
Resistance 1 : $1.3150/60 (area of session high and Apr 10-11 highs, area МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: $1.3140
Support 1 : $1.3110 (support line from Apr 10)
Support 2 : $1.3080 (support line from Apr 9)
Support 3 : $1.3030 (Apr 5 and 9 lows)

Комментарии: сообщается о стопах на $1,3160, поглощение которых может дать импульс для достижения $1,3210/20.

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3105, $1.3120, $1.3150, $1.3170, $1.3175

USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.45, Y81.50, Y82.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8320

USD/CHF  Chf0.9200, Chf0.9095

AUD/USD $1.0250, $1.0300

GBP/USD $1.5905

Most Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index climbing from its lowest level in more than two months, as materials producers and traders increased on higher commodity prices and Citigroup Inc. recommended buying global industrial shares.

Nikkei 225 9,524.79 +66.05 +0.70%

Hang Seng 20,281.37 +140.70 +0.70%

S&P/ASX 200 4,280.64 +34.52 +0.81%

Shanghai Composite 2,350.86 +41.94 +1.82%

Alumina Ltd., partner in the world’s biggest producer of the material used to make alumina, added 1.1 percent in Sydney after Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reported an unexpected first-quarter profit. Fanuc Corp., a maker of production automation systems, advanced 1.6 percent after Citigroup maintained a buy rating on the Japanese company. Australian banks increased after the country’s payrolls rose almost seven times as much as economists estimated.

• Survey indicators for economic growth have broadly stabilised at low levels in the early months of 2012, and  a moderate recovery in activity is expected in the course of the year.   
• The economic outlook remains subject to downside risks.  

01:30 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation April +2.7% +3.3%

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate March 5.2% 5.3% 5.2%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed March -15.4 6.7 44.0

The yen extended declines to a second day against all of its 16 major counterparts after Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he will continue pursuing monetary easing. Shirakawa said today that defeating deflation and achieving sustained growth are extremely important tasks for the Bank of Japan. The BOJ unexpectedly expanded bond purchases by 10 trillion yen ($124 billion) on Feb. 14 and set a 1 percent inflation goal.

The dollar weakened against the majority of its peers after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen endorsed the central bank’s “highly accommodative” policy. Further U.S. easing “could be warranted if the recovery proceeds at a slower-than-expected pace,” Yellen said yesterday in a speech in New York. “Over the next several years, I anticipate that we will fall far short in achieving our maximum employment objective, and I expect inflation to remain at or below” the Fed’s 2 percent target, Yellen said.

Australia’s currency, known as the Aussie, strengthened against all of its 16 major peers. The number of people employed rose by 44,000 in Australia last month, the statistics bureau said today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated an increase of 6,500.

The euro was 0.2 percent from a three- month low against the pound before Italy sells bonds today. Italy will sell bonds today maturing in 2015, 2020 and 2023. The nation’s benchmark 10-year yield touched a two-month high of 5.73 percent yesterday before falling 15 basis points from the previous day. Spain will offer bonds on April 19.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain come nearer to yesterday's high.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain come nearer to yesterday's high.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair holds in range Y80.80-Y81.05.

European data starts early on Thursday, with the 0530GMT release of HICP data for France. European data continues at 0645GMT with

France current account data. Also at 0800GMT, the IEA monthly oil market report is due along with the latest ECB monthly bulletin for

March. UK data at 0830GMT sees Trade data along with BoE Quoted Rates and also Vehicle Licensing Statistics. Fed speakers for Thursday start at 1115GMT, when New York Fed  President William Dudley will speak to the Center for Economic Development on regional and national economic conditions. US data starts at 1230GMT with the Producer Price Index for March as well as the weekly initial claims for jobless benefits and monthly international trade data.

Yesterday the euro strengthened from a seven- week low against the yen as Spain’s bonds climbed after a board member of the European Central Bank indicated it may buy the nation’s debt to reduce borrowing costs. Europe’s shared currency gained versus the dollar after Italy sold 11 billion euros ($14.4 billion) of bills, meeting the target for the auction. The yield on Spain’s 10-year bond fell from the highest since Dec. 12. The rate has jumped almost 1 percentage point since March 2, when Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said the country would miss its 2012 deficit goal approved by the European Union. Italian 10-year yields fell 15 basis points, or 0.158 percentage point, to 5.54 percent after touching 5.73 percent, the highest level since Feb. 16.

The yen weakened against all but one of its 16 most-traded peers amid speculation the Bank of Japan will add to monetary easing later this month.

Britain’s pound strengthened after a report showed U.K. retail sales rose in March. It advanced 0.3 percent to $1.5903, and climbed as much as 0.5 percent, the most since March 30. Retail sales at U.K. stores open at least 12 months, measured by value, gained 1.3 percent from a year earlier, after sliding 0.3 percent in February, the London-based British Retail Consortium said.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair gain, traded above $1.3100.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair gain on a floor of a figure, showed a new week’s high.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair restored after Tuesday’s falling.

European data starts early on Thursday, with the 0530GMT release of HICP data for France. European data continues at 0645GMT with

France current account data. Also at 0800GMT, the IEA monthly oil market report is due along with the latest ECB monthly bulletin for

March. UK data at 0830GMT sees Trade data along with BoE Quoted Rates and also Vehicle Licensing Statistics. Fed speakers for Thursday start at 1115GMT, when New York Fed  President William Dudley will speak to the Center for Economic Development on regional and national economic conditions. US data starts at 1230GMT with the Producer Price Index for March as well as the weekly initial claims for jobless benefits and monthly international trade data.

Resistance 3: Y82.55 (Apr 6 high)

Resistance 2: Y81.85 (Apr 10 high)

Resistance 1: Y81.10 (Apr 11 high)

The current price: Y80.86

Support 1: Y80.55 (Apr 11 low)

Support 2: Y80.00 (Feb 28 low)

Support 3: Y79.35 (Feb 20 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9255 (Mar 16 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9220 (Apr 5 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9185 (high of the American session on Apr 11)

The current price: Chf0.9161

Support 1: Chf0.9130 (Apr 11 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9095 (Apr 4 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9070 (Apr 2 high)

Resistance 3 : $1.6045 (Apr 3 low)

Resistance 2 : $1.5975 (high of the American session on Apr 3)

Resistance 1 : $1.5930/35 (area of Apr 10-11 highs)

The current price: $1.5921

Support 1 : $1.5885 (low of the American session on Apr 11)

Support 2 : $1.5850 (Apr 11 low)

Support 3 : $1.5805 (Apr 5-10 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3250 (Mar 29 low)

Resistance 2 : $1.3210 (high of the European session on Apr 4)

Resistance 1 : $1.3155/65 (area of Apr 5-11 highs)

The current price: $1.3129

Support 1 : $1.3105 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3065 (Apr 11 low)

Support 3 : $1.3030 (Apr 9 low)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3110 +0,22%

GBP/USD $1,5908 +0,31%

USD/CHF Chf0,9174 -0,12%

USD/JPY Y80,87 +0,19%

EUR/JPY Y106,00 +0,38%

GBP/JPY Y128,63 +0,47%

AUD/USD $1,0303 +0,48%

NZD/USD $0,8183 +0,33%

USD/CAD C$1,0036 -0,05%

01:30 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation April +2.7%

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate March 5.2% 5.3%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed March -15.4 6.7

05:30 France CPI, m/m March +0.4% +0.6%

05:30 France CPI, y/y March +2.3% +2.1%

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report -

08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods February -7.5 -7.6

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) February +0.2% -0.2%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) February -1.2% -1.8%

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions February 2.1 2.2

12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index February +0.1% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m March +0.4% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y March +3.3% +3.0%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m March +0.2% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y March +3.0% +2.8%

12:30 U.S. International trade, bln February -52.6 -51.9

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 07.04.2012 357 355

13:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks -

17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -

18:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Posen Speaks -

19:30 U.S. FOMC Member Raskin Speaks -

23:50 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting