• EUR/USD remains sidelined after ending the week on a negative note, despite refreshing monthly peak.
• Convergence of 21-DMA, one-month-old ascending trend line restricts immediate downside.
• Descending resistance line from May-end guards immediate upside, three-month-old ascending trend line, 50% Fibonacci retracement appears tough nut to crack for bulls.
• MACD, RSI hints at the pair’s further upside momentum.

EUR/USD remains sidelined around 1.0260 after a softer end to the positive week, amid cautious sentiment ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

The major currency pair’s latest moves are clubbed between the 1.0220 support and the 1.0315 resistance levels.

That said, a convergence of the 21-DMA and a one-month-old ascending trend line restricts the immediate downside. On the contrary, the 50-DMA and Descending resistance line from late May questions the EUR/USD bulls.

It’s worth noting that the bullish MACD signals and the firmer RSI (14) line, not overbought, appear to keep the buyers hopeful.

That said, a clear upside break of the 1.0315 hurdle could propel the quote towards an upward sloping support-turned-resistance line from mid-May and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of May-July downside, near 1.0375.

On the flip side, a daily closing below 1.0220 appears necessary for the EUR/USD bears to retake control.

Following that, multiple levels around 1.0120 and 1.0100 could challenge the pair’s further downside.

In a case where the EUR/USD pair remains weak past 1.0100, the 1.0000 parity level and the yearly low of 0.9952 will be in focus.

Overall, EUR/USD buyers are in the driver’s seat but the road to the north appears bumpy.

EUR/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Limited upside expected

• Gold price ended the week on a firmer footing as inflation numbers drowned the US dollar.
• Fed policymakers tried to defend the hawks but markets awaited FOMC Minutes for confirmation.
• Hint on the size of the next rate hike will be closely watched in the Minutes.
• China’s monthly data dump will offer immediate directions amid mixed Sino-American updates, easing of covid-19 restrictions in Shanghai.

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds onto the recent upside momentum around $1,800 as it begins the weekly trading around a monthly high, after a four-week uptrend. That said, the metal’s latest advances could be linked to the market’s receding hawkish bias on the Fed’s next move considering the latest softness in the headline inflation data, despite the hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers.

Be it the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Producers Price Index (PPI), both the top-tier inflation gauges from the US have eased in July. The same took some pressure off the Fed policymakers to boost the rates faster amid the looming recession woes. The same joined the absence of major negatives from the geopolitical front to help build the market’s sentiment and favor the XAU/USD bulls.

That said, Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he wants to raise interest rates further to bring inflation under control. Even so, the policymaker added that he will watch the US economic data to decide how big a rate hike to support at the Fed's next meeting in September. "I'd like to see a period of sustained inflation under control, and until we do that I think we are just going to have to move rates into restrictive territory," Barkin told CNBC, per Reuters.

While data this week showing inflation did not accelerate in July was "welcome," Barkin said, he would want to see inflation running at the Fed's 2% target for "some time" before stopping rate hikes.

Previously San Francisco Fed President Mary Day backed opportunities of witnessing another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike in September, while also suggesting an upfront 0.50% rate hike to be sure.

Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans sounded grim. That said, Fed’s Kashkari mentioned that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need to raise the Fed's policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Further, Fed policymaker Evens stated, “The economy is almost surely a little more fragile, but would take something adverse to trigger a recession.” Fed’s Evans also called inflation "unacceptably" high.

It’s worth noting that the August preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) edged higher to 55.1 (flash) from 51.5 in July and the market expectation of 52.5. Further details revealed that the one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to a six-month low of 5.0% from 5.2%, while the five-year inflation outlook edged up to 3.0% from 2.9%.

Elsewhere, mixed updates surrounding the US-China tussles and the Biden-Xi meeting, as well as easing covid-led restrictions in Shanghai appeared to have offered a quiet start to the week.

Also read: Weekend News: China, Taiwan gain major attention

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed on the positive side and the US 10-year Treasury yields closed mildly negative, down 5.6 basis points (bps) to 2.83% at the latest.

Looking forward, China’s monthly Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July will offer immediate directions. However, major attention will be given to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

Technical analysis

Gold price remains successfully above the 50-DMA nearby support, around $1,782 by the press time, even after retreating from a one-month-old resistance line, close to $1,814 at the latest.

Given the firmer RSI and the MACD signals, the XAU/USD bulls are likely on the way to crossing the immediate hurdle.

However, the RSI line approaches the overbought region and hence a downward sloping resistance line from late April, near $1,825, could be a tough nut to crack for the gold buyers.

Even if the bulls manage to cross the $1,825 resistance line, a convergence of the 200-DMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-July downside, near $1,840-43, will be a major challenge for the XAU/USD bulls.

Meanwhile, a downside break of the 50-DMA support around $1,782, could quickly fetch the quote towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,755.

Following that, the $1,714 and the $1,700 threshold could entertain the gold bears before directing them to the yearly low near $1,680.

Gold: XAI/USD chart

Trend: Further upside expected

Having heard inflation as the major catalyst during the last week, geopolitical factors surrounding the US-China ties and the covid woes in Beijing are back in focus after the latest developments. Headlines surrounding the US tax bill’s passage and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s readiness for review also crossed wires and seemed interesting too.

Among them, a Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) piece suggesting a probable meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping gained a major attention.

The news said, “Chinese officials are making plans for Xi Jinping to visit Southeast Asia and meet face-to-face with President Biden in November, according to people familiar with the preparations, in what would mark the Chinese leader’s first international trip in nearly three years and his first in-person meeting with Mr. Biden since the American leader’s inauguration.”

On the other hand, Nikkei Asia came out with the news suggesting the increased count of the US lawmakers who are visiting Taiwan after the dramatic visit of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. “A delegation of American lawmakers is visiting Taiwan just 12 days after a visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that angered China,” said the news.

Nikkei Asia also added that the five-member delegation, led by Democratic Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, will meet senior leaders to discuss U.S.-Taiwan relations, regional security, trade, investment and other issues, the American Institute in Taiwan said.

Elsewhere, Reuters conveyed improved coronavirus conditions in China's financial hub Shanghai as the policymakers announced, per the news, that they will reopen all primary, middle and high schools, kindergartens and nurseries on September 1 after months of COVID-19 closures. “Shanghai shut all schools in mid-March before the city's two-month lockdown to combat its worst COVID outbreak in April and May,” Reuters added.

It should be noted that the US House passed the Climate and Tax Bill and sends it to Biden.

On a different page, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey would be “open to a review” of the central bank’s mandate after Foreign Secretary Liz Truss criticized its approach to inflation, the Telegraph reported, citing a person familiar with the situation, per Bloomberg.

Bailey’s reported remarks follow comments by Truss to the Telegraph this month that she would “look again” at the BOE’s mandate “to make sure it is tough enough on inflation,” per Bloomberg News. The piece also mentioned that price gains are currently approaching double digits and forecast to peak at 13.3% in October, more than six times the BOE’s target.”

Also read: Gold Weekly Forecast: Next direction depends on September Fed hike bets