The yen climbed from an 11-month low against the dollar as investors wagered that its largest four-day decline since November may have happened too quickly. The Japanese central bank unexpectedly added 10 trillion yen ($120 billion) to its asset-purchase program at its Feb. 14 meeting and Governor Masaaki Shirakawa indicated the central bank will keep using monetary policy as a tool to tackle deflation on March 13. The Federal Reserve raised its outlook for U.S. growth at its meeting the same day, reducing expectations of a third round of bond purchases.

The pound weakened for the first time in three days against the euro after Fitch Ratings said the U.K. risks losing its top investment grade. The U.K. currency fell against 11 of its 16 major counterparts after Fitch changed its rating outlook yesterday on Britain to negative, citing a weak recovery and high debt levels. Fitch said its decision “reflects the very limited fiscal space to absorb further economic shocks in light of such elevated debt levels and a potentially weaker than currently forecast economic recovery.” The U.K. government is implementing the biggest squeeze on government spending since World War II as it attempts to reduce the nation’s deficit.

The Swiss franc climbed from a seven-week low against the dollar as the Swiss National Bank predicted the economy will expand 1 percent this year, twice as much as its previous estimate. Policy makers led by interim Chairman Thomas Jordan, maintained their ceiling for the currency at 1.20 francs per euro, and pledged to defend the cap with their “utmost determination.” The SNB forecast that consumer prices will fall 0.6 percent this year, before inflation returns in 2013 with a rate of 0.3 percent, accelerating to 0.6 percent in 2014.

The

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3150/55, $1.3120/25

Bids $1.3030, $1.3000, $1.2980/70, $1.2950, $1.2930

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0645/50, $1.0600/20, $1.0555/60

Bids $1.0445/40, $1.0400

USD/JPY

Offers Y84.75, Y84.50, Y84.25, Y83.70

Bids Y83.00, Y82.85/80, Y82.55/50, Y82.30

Data:

06:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts Quarter II

08:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision 0 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

08:30 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment 0

09:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report March

10:00 Eurozone Employment Change IV quarter -0.1% -0.2% -0.2%

11:30 United Kingdom MPC Member Dr Ben Broadbent Speaks 0

Resistance 3: Y85.50 (high of 2011)

Resistance 2: Y84.80 (Apr 12 high)

Resistance 1: Y84.15 (session high)

The current price: Y83.45

Support 1: Y82.85 (support line from Mar 7)

Support 2: Y81.90 (area of Mar 13 low and Mar 5 high)

Support 3: Y81.45 (Mar 9 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9410 (Jan 19 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9380 (Jan 23 high )

Resistance 1: Chf0.9335 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9281

Support 1: Chf0.9265 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9225 (Mar 14 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9185 (low of the American session on Mar 13)

Resistance 3 : $1.5745 (Mar 13 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5705 (resistance line from Mar 2)

Resistance 1 : $1.5675 (session high)

The current price: $1.5643

Support 1 : $1.5630 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5610/00 (Mar 12-13 lows, 50.0 % FIBO $1.5230-$1.5990)

Support 3 : $1.5530 (Jan 25 low)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3070, $1.3100, $1.3125, $1.3140

USD/JPY Y83.00, Y83.40, Y84.00

GBP/USD $1.5695, $1.5700, $1.5900

USD/CHF Chf0.9225

EUR/CHF Chf1.2100

AUD/USD $1.0400

Data:

00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation March +2.5% +2.7%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) February +1.2% +2.2% 0.0%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) February +2.7% +1.7%

The dollar reached an 11-month high against the yen before U.S. data forecast to show regional manufacturing expanded and initial jobless claims decreased, adding to signs the American economy is gathering momentum.

The greenback was near the highest level in four weeks against the euro amid reduced bets the Federal Reserve will begin a third round of bond purchases, or quantitative easing, which could debase the world’s reserve currency.

The yen slid against most major counterparts as Asian stocks rose for a third day, curbing demand for the lower-yielding Japanese currency.

EUR/USD: the pair receded from a yesterday's low in $1.3000 area and become stronger in $1.3040 area.

GBP/USD: the pair was limited $1.5630-$ 1.5675.

USD/JPY: the pair showed high above Y84.00 then receded.

EMU data at 1000GMT sees Q4 employment and labour costs data.

UK data at 0930GMT is limited to February car production data.

A busy US data schedule starts at 1230GMT with the Producer Price Index, weekly initial jobless claims and also the NY Fed Empire State Survey. Producer prices are expected to rise 0.5% in February after soft readings in the previous two months. After falling recently, both energy and food prices are expected to rebound in February. The core PPI is expected to rise 0.2% after the 0.4% jump in January. Initial jobless claims are expected to fall 5,000 to 357,000 in the March 10 week after rising 8,000 in the previous week. Claims have remained in a tight range in recent weeks. The NY Fed Empire State

Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to a reading of 18.0 in March after jumping to a reading of 19.53 in February. This is followed at

1300GMT by the latest TICS report and then at 1345GMT by the weekly Bloomberg Comfort Index and at 1400GMT by the Philadelphia Fed index,

Свое решение рейтинговое агентство аргументирует недостаточной защищена от экономических потрясений.

The dollar strengthened to an 11- month high against the yen after the Federal Reserve raised its outlook for U.S. growth, reducing expectations the central bank will begin a third round of bond purchases. The Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday it expects “moderate economic growth” and predicted the U.S. unemployment rate “will decline gradually.”

The yen fell for a second day versus the dollar as the extra yield received for holding Treasury two-year notes compared with Japanese debt increased to the most since July. The extra yield investors receive from holding two-year Treasuries instead of Japanese debt widened to 24 basis points, the most since July 28, increasing the attractiveness of dollar assets. There is a “relatively high” correlation between the two-year spread and the dollar-yen exchange rate, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa has said.

Britain’s pound rallied against most of its major peers as gilt yields rose to the highest in four months.

 

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair fell in $1.3030 area, showed low in $1.3000 area.

 

GBP/USD: the range of the yesterday's session was about 100 points ($1.5647-$ 1.5742).

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair rose, showed high on Y83.82.

  

 

At 0830GMT, the Swiss National Bank announces it's monetary policy decision. The meeting is not expected to do much beyond re-stressing its commitment to the Chf1.20 floor against the euro. The SNB is still looking for a replacement for Philippe Hildebrand, who resigned following controversy

over his wife's foreign exchange dealings. The board is therefore short one member. Thomas Jordan is the present stand-in for the role of SNB

president.

EMU data at 1000GMT sees Q4 employment and labour costs data.

UK data at 0930GMT is limited to February car production data.

A busy US data schedule starts at 1230GMT with the Producer Price Index, weekly initial jobless claims and also the NY Fed Empire State Survey. Producer prices are expected to rise 0.5% in February after soft readings in the previous two months. After falling recently, both energy and food prices are expected to rebound in February. The core PPI is expected to rise 0.2% after the 0.4% jump in January. Initial jobless claims are expected to fall 5,000 to 357,000 in the March 10 week after rising 8,000 in the previous week. Claims have remained in a tight range in recent weeks. The NY Fed Empire State

Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to a reading of 18.0 in March after jumping to a reading of 19.53 in February. This is followed at

1300GMT by the latest TICS report and then at 1345GMT by the weekly Bloomberg Comfort Index and at 1400GMT by the Philadelphia Fed index,

which is expected to rise further to a reading of 11.5 in March after rising to 10.2 in February.

Resistance 3: Y85.50 (high of 2011)

Resistance 2: Y84.50 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Y84.20 (area of session high)

Current price: Y83.79

Support 1: Y83.55 (intraday low on Mar 14)

Support 2: Y83.10 (intraday low on Mar 14, Mar 13 high)

Support 3: Y82.70 (intraday low on Mar 13, Mar 9 high)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9400 (Jan 12-13 lows)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9380 (Jan 20 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9330 (session high, Mar 14 high)

Current price: Chf0.9285

Support 1: Chf0.9260 (38.2 % FIBO Chf0.9140-Chf0.9330)

Support 2: Chf0.9240 (50.0 % FIBO Chf0.9140-Chf0.9330)

Support 3: Chf0.9120/15 (Mar 12 high, 61.8 % FIBO Chf0.9140-Chf0.9330)

Resistance 3 : $1.5800 (area of 50.0 % FIBO $1.5990-$ 1.5600)
Resistance 2 : $1.5750 (Mar 13-14 high, 38.2 % FIBO $1.5990-$ 1.5600)
Resistance 1 : $1.5710 (resistance line from Mar 1)
Current price: $1.5652
Support 1 : $1.5620/00 (Mar 12-13 low, 50,0 % FIBO $1,5230-$ 1,5990)
Support 2 : $1.5530 (61.8 % FIBO $1,5230-$ 1,5990)
Support 3 : $1.5500 (psychological level)

Resistance 3 : $1.3120 (high of american session on Mar 13)

Resistance 2 : $1.3090 (Mar 14 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3040 (session high)

Current price: $1.3020

Support 1 : $1.3000 (session low, psychological level)

Support 2 : $1.2975 (low of February)

Support 3 : $1.2930 (Jan 25 low)

(currency pair/close(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3029 -0,39%
GBP/USD $1,5665 -0,26%
USD/CHF Chf0,9304 +0,77%
USD/JPY Y83,68 +0,97%
EUR/JPY Y109,03 +0,60%
GBP/JPY Y131,02 +0,66%
AUD/USD $1,0448 -0,85%
NZD/USD $0,8097 -1,52%
USD/CAD C$0,9933 +0,46%

00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation March +2.5% +2.7%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) February +1.2% +2.2% 0.0% 00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) February +2.7% +1.7% 06:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts Quarter II 08:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 08:30 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment 09:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report March 10:00 Eurozone Employment Change IV quarter -0.1% -0.2% 11:30 United Kingdom MPC Member Dr Ben Broadbent Speaks 0 12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 10/03/2012 362 357 12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m February +0.1% +0.5% 12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y February +4.1% +3.1% 12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m February +0.4% +0.2% 12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y February +3.0% +2.9% 12:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index March 19.5 17.6 13:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows January 17.9 29.3 13:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows January 87.1 40.0 14:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey March 10.2 11.8 23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes