• Some of the disinflationary shock to demand has been deferred while most inflationary channels have begun to appear

• Says main question about Brexit's impact on inflation is extent to which it has been brought forward

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell three points to a level of 64 in September from a downwardly revised August reading of 67 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

"The recent hurricanes have intensified our members' concerns about the availability of labor and the cost of building materials," said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas. "Once the rebuilding process is underway, I expect builder confidence will return to the high levels we saw this spring."

"Despite this month's drop, builder confidence is still on very firm ground," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. "With ongoing job creation, economic growth and rising consumer confidence, we should see the housing market continue to recover at a gradual, steady pace throughout the rest of the year."

EURUSD: 1.1855 (EUR 325m) 1.1970 (330m)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 675m) 111.00-05 (795m) 111.20 (495m)

Foreign investment in Canadian securities amounted to $24.0 billion in July, led by record acquisitions of Canadian bonds. At the same time, Canadian investors reduced their holdings of foreign securities by $1.8 billion, following strong acquisitions in June.

As a result, Canada's international transactions in securities generated a net inflow of funds into the Canadian economy of $25.8 billion in July. Foreign investment in Canadian securities has exceeded Canadian investment in foreign securities by $86.2 billion since the beginning of 2017, led by foreign acquisitions of Canadian private corporate instruments.

Euro area annual inflation was 1.5% in August 2017, up from 1.3% in July 2017. In August 2016 the rate was 0.2%. European Union annual inflation was 1.7% in August 2017, up from 1.5% in July 2017. A year earlier the rate was 0.3%. These figures come from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. The lowest annual rates were registered in Ireland (0.4%), Cyprus (0.5%), Greece and Romania (both 0.6%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Lithuania (4.6%), Estonia (4.2%), and Latvia (3.2%). Compared with July 2017, annual inflation rose in twenty Member States, remained stable in five and fell in three.

The largest upward impacts to the euro area annual inflation came from fuels for transport (+0.16 percentage points), accommodation services (+0.10 pp) and air transport (+0.06 pp), while telecommunication (-0.12 pp), vegetables (-0.05 pp) and social protection (-0.04 pp) had the biggest downward impacts

In July 2017 seasonally-adjusted data, compared to June 2017, decreased by 1.4% for outgoing flows and increased by 0.9% for incoming flows. Exports decreased for non EU countries (-1.8%) and for EU countries (-1.1%). Imports increased for EU countries (+2.4%) and decreased for non EU countries (-1.4%). Over the last three months, seasonally-adjusted data, in comparison with the previous three months, showed a stationary growth for exports and an increase of 1.0% for imports.

In July 2017, compared with the same month of the previous year, exports and imports increased (+5.1% and +10.5% respectively). Outgoing flows increased by 6.2% for EU countries and by 3.8% for non EU countries. Incoming flows increased by 12.1% for EU area and by 8.2% for non EU area. The trade balance in July amounted to +6,560 million Euros (+4,532 million Euros for non EU area and +2,028 million Euros for EU countries).

• Says EU decision on tariffs against China solar panels a positive step for market normalisation

The August 2017 trend estimate (100,809) increased by 0.3% when compared with July 2017.

When comparing national trend estimates for August 2017 with July 2017, sales for Sports utility vehicles and Other vehicles increased by 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. By contrast, Passenger vehicles decreased by 0.4%.

The largest upward movement across all states and territories, on a trend basis, was in the Northern Territory (0.9%), continuing an upward trend that began in January 2017.

The largest downward movement across all states and territories, on a trend basis, was in Tasmania (-0.6%).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2048 (3170)

$1.2022 (1485)

$1.2000 (494)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1943

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1881 (3147)

$1.1850 (4460)

$1.1815 (2592)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 6 is 96363 contracts (according to data from September, 15) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1900 (4460);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3732 (998)

$1.3708 (844)

$1.3671 (1123)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3593

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3476 (215)

$1.3450 (101)

$1.3420 (342)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 6 is 28684 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3300 (2587);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 30886 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (2496);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.08 versus 1.04 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 15

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,9434 +1,55%

GBP/USD $1,3587 +1,41%

USD/CHF Chf0,95934 -0,39%

USD/JPY Y110,81 +0,53%

EUR/JPY Y132,39 +0,80%

GBP/JPY Y150,566 +1,94%

AUD/USD $0,8000 +0,03%

NZD/USD $0,7287 +0,87%

USD/CAD C$1,21924 +0,15%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) August 1.8%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) August -2%

07:00 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI August -0.5% 0.3%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y (Finally) August 1.2% 1.2%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) August 1.3% 1.5%

12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases July -0.92

14:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index September 68 67

20:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows July 7.7

20:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows July 34.4

22:00 New Zealand Westpac Consumer Sentiment Quarter III 113.4