00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) June 53.1 53.4

06:45 France GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter I 0.5% 0.4%

06:45 France GDP, Y/Y (Finally) Quarter I 1.2% 1%

07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) June 53.8 54

07:00 France Services PMI (Preliminary) June 57.2 57

07:30 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) June 55.4 55.5

07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) June 59.5 59

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) June 57 56.8

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) June 56.3 56.2

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance June 2

12:15 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y May 1.1%

12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y May 1.6% 1.5%

12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m May 0.4% 0.2%

13:00 Belgium Business Climate June -1.1 -0.9

13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) June 52.7 53

13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) June 53.6 53.7

14:00 U.S. New Home Sales May 569 597

16:15 U.S. FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks

16:40 U.S. FOMC Member Mester Speaks

17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count June

In June 2017, the DG ECFIN flash estimate of the consumer confidence indicator increased markedly in both the euro area (+2.0 points to -1.3) and the EU (+1.1 points to -2.2) compared to May.

EURUSD:1.1000 (1.3bln) 1.1090-1.1100 (1.87bln) 1.1140 (423m) 1.1160 (800m) 1.1175 (2.2bln) 1.1200-10 (1.7bln) 1.1250 (2bln) 1.1275 (660m) 1.1300 (745m)

USDJPY: 110.00-10 (1.9bln) 111.00-10 (2.7bln) 111.50 (690m) 111.80 (575m) 112.50 (1.7bln)

GBPUSD: 1.2505 (GBP 340m) 1.2600 (315m) 1.2700 (395m) 1.2780 (190m)

EURGBP 0.8730 (186m)

USDCHF: 0.9700 (USD 390m)

AUDUSD: 0.7500 (AUD 385m) 0.7540 (250m) 0.7655 (735m)

USDCAD: 1.3250 (USD 470m) 1.3360 (380m) 1.3400 (230m)

NZDUSD: 0.7200 (NZD 335m)

EURJPY: 124.80 (EUR 270m) 125.00 (350m)

U.S. house prices rose in April, up 0.7 percent from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.6 percent increase in March was revised upward to reflect a 0.7 percent increase. The FHFA monthly HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

From April 2016 to April 2017, house prices were up 6.8 percent. For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from March 2017 to April 2017 ranged from -0.1 percent in the East South Central division to +1.6 percent in the West South Central division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +4.7 percent in the West North Central division to +8.9 percent in the Mountain division.

In the week ending June 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 241,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 237,000 to 238,000. The 4-week moving average was 244,750, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 243,000 to 243,250.

Sales were up in 9 of 11 subsectors, representing 71% of total retail trade. Excluding sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales climbed 1.5%.

After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms were up 0.3%.

The largest increase in dollar terms was a 2.1% increase at general merchandise stores.

Sales at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+3.5%) increased for the eighth consecutive month. This subsector has been trending upward on the strength of higher sales of home appliances, hardware and tools. This was the largest percentage increase since May 2015.

Receipts at gasoline stations (+1.7%) were up for the seventh time in nine months. This gain reflected higher prices at the pump. According to the Consumer Price Index, on an unadjusted basis, the price of gasoline rose 9.5% in April.

After decreasing 3.3% in March, sales bounced back at clothing and clothing accessories stores (+3.1%) in April. Gains were reported in all store types, led by clothing stores (+2.1%).

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.1180 1.1200 1.1230 1.1250 1.1280 1.1300

Bids: 1.1150 1.1120 1.1100 1.1080 1.1050 1.1030 1.1000

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2685 1.2700 1.2720 1.2750 1.2780 1.2800

Bids: 1.2650 1.2630 1.2600 1.2580 1.2565 1.2550

EUR/JPY

Offers: 124.20 124.50 124.80 125.00

Bids: 123.80 123.50 123.00 122.80 122.50

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8825 0.8835 0.8850-55 0.8885 0.8900

Bids: 0.8800 0.8780 0.8750 0.8720 0.8700

USD/JPY

Offers: 111.20 111.35 111.50 111.65 111.80 112.00 112.30 112.50

Bids: 111.00-110.95 110.80 110.50 110.30 110.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7560 0.7580 0.7600 0.7620 0.7635 0.7650

Bids: 0.7520 0.7500 0.7480 0.7450 0.7400

"The EUR/USD is expected to reach a level of 1.06 by the end of next year, having downside potential. Most of the analysts arguing for 1.20-ish levels simply extrapolate the medium-term upward trend in EUR/USD.

Even the description of the recent past as a period of EUR strength is wrong. Market participants are fixated on EUR-USD when assessing EUR strength or weakness. But EUR/USD is a relative price which can rise either because of EUR strength or because of USD weakness. Most often, EUR-USD is more reacting on USD-idiosyncratic factors than on factors concerning Europe's single currency.

Dissecting EUR/USD into a EUR-specific component and a USD-specific component requires a comparison of the EUR-USD developments with other USD rates and EUR cross rates. The EUR index peaked on May 22. Since then, the EUR has remained weak, which, however, does not clearly show up in EUR/USD as it coincides with roughly equal USD weakness.

In addition, By May 22 the OIS market had priced in a probability of nearly 65 percent for a rate hike before mid-2018, i.e. an ECB interest rate policy that would violate the ECB's forward guidance ("interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases").

Further, market participants have abandoned their bold view by now. Now the 25 percent probability for such a move indicates that this scenario (while still a possibility) is regarded as unlikely. With this less benign rate outlook, EUR has lost parts of its former attractiveness. And it is unlikely that this EUR-friendly factor will return. Meanwhile, ECB President Mario Draghi has emphasized the forward guidance and has done everything to clarify that the European central bankers will stick to it".

• Talks between conservative party and DUP are ongoing

• Tests of tower block cladding are ongoing

The survey of 464 manufacturers found that total order books climbed to the highest level since August 1988. This was underpinned by a broad-based improvement in 13 of the 17 sub-sectors, led by the food, drink & tobacco and chemicals sectors. Export orders also improved to a 22-year high, hitting similar peaks to those seen in 2011 and 2013.

Output growth eased to the levels seen at the start of the year, on the back of slowdowns in the chemicals and mechanical engineering sectors, but remained robust historically. Firms expect a firm rise in production over the coming quarter.

• Indicators suggest that global growth will rebound in the near term, then accelerate gradually

• Euro zone inflation likely to remain around recent levels in the coming months

• Data point to solid euro zone growth in the second quarter of 2017

Capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy appears to be higher than envisaged earlier. Inflation is lower than expected and may continue to drift down in the months ahead, but increased activity and receding unemployment suggest that inflation will pick up. Inflation expectations appear to be firmly anchored. Low house price inflation will curb debt accumulation, but it will take time for household vulnerabilities to recede.

"The Executive Board's current assessment of the outlook and the balance of risks suggests that the key policy rate will remain at today's level in the period ahead," says Governor Øystein Olsen.

In Monetary Policy Report 2/17, the key policy rate is forecast to be 0.5 percent in 2017 and 2018, rising gradually from 2019. The forecast is little changed on the March Report, but is a little higher in 2017 and 2018, and a little lower towards the end of the forecast horizon.

EURUSD:1.1000 (1.3bln) 1.1090-1.1100 (1.87bln) 1.1140 (423m) 1.1160 (800m) 1.1175 (2.2bln) 1.1200-10 (1.7bln) 1.1250 (2bln) 1.1275 (660m) 1.1300 (745m)

USDJPY: 110.00-10 (1.9bln) 111.00-10 (2.7bln) 111.50 (690m) 111.80 (575m) 112.50 (1.7bln)

GBPUSD: 1.2505 (GBP 340m) 1.2600 (315m) 1.2700 (395m) 1.2780 (190m)

EURGBP 0.8730 (186m)

USDCHF: 0.9700 (USD 390m)

AUDUSD: 0.7500 (AUD 385m) 0.7540 (250m) 0.7655 (735m)

USDCAD: 1.3250 (USD 470m) 1.3360 (380m) 1.3400 (230m)

NZDUSD: 0.7200 (NZD 335m)

EURJPY: 124.80 (EUR 270m) 125.00 (350m)

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

The foreign trade was dynamic in May 2017. Thus exports grew by 7.5% on a working-day basis and imports by 8.7%. In both directions, the chemical-pharmaceutical products gave the development a lot of momentum. The trade balance showed a large surplus of CHF 3.4 billion.

• Sees room "for eliminating or relaxing" non-essential elements of Volcker rule

• Does not comment on outlook for U.S. economy in prepared testimony to senate banking committee

• Measures that improve safety and soundness must "increase bank costs"

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1291 (3130)

$1.1264 (2035)

$1.1233 (980)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1175

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1152 (2718)

$1.1121 (3975)

$1.1083 (7652)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 69802 contracts (according to data from June, 21) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (7652);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2921 (2197)

$1.2845 (2404)

$1.2786 (1079)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2668

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2616 (2862)

$1.2554 (1366)

$1.2476 (1656)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 7 is 31093 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2404);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 28452 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (2862);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 21

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Q1 GDP was lower than expected

• Lower NZD would help rebalance growth

• Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period

• Longer-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored at around 2 pct

• BoJ is buying etf as part of its qqe programme, not targeting certain stock price level

• Better to maintain BoJ's pledge to increase its jgb holding at 80 trln yen per year

• BoJ can guide monetary policy more flexibly by maintaining the bond-buying pledge, removing it could cause unnecessary market turmoil

• Don't need to change BoJ's inflation forecasts just from temporary fluctuations in oil prices

• Oil prices may fluctuate but likely to move up as a trend

• See little chance Japan's economy will worsen but if it does on big external shock, BoJ can top up stimulus

Statement by Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler:

"The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent.

Global economic growth has increased and become more broad-based. However, major challenges remain with on-going surplus capacity and extensive political uncertainty.

Headline inflation has increased over the past year in several countries, but moderated recently with the fall in energy prices. Core inflation and long-term bond yields remain low. Monetary policy is expected to remain stimulatory in the advanced economies, but less so going forward.

The trade-weighted exchange rate has increased by around 3 percent since May, partly in response to higher export prices. A lower New Zealand dollar would help rebalance the growth outlook towards the tradables sector.

GDP growth in the March quarter was lower than expected, with weaker export volumes and residential construction partially offset by stronger consumption. Nevertheless, the growth outlook remains positive, supported by accommodative monetary policy, strong population growth, and high terms of trade. Recent changes announced in Budget 2017 should support the outlook for growth.

House price inflation has moderated further, especially in Auckland. The slowdown in house price inflation partly reflects loan-to-value ratio restrictions, and tighter lending conditions. This moderation is projected to continue, although there is a risk of resurgence given the on-going imbalance between supply and demand".

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1167 +0,30%

GBP/USD $1,2673 +0,39%

USD/CHF Chf0,9722 -0,26%

USD/JPY Y111,41 -0,03%

EUR/JPY Y124,42 +0,27%

GBP/JPY Y141,19 +0,37%

AUD/USD $0,7552 -0,33%

NZD/USD $0,7242 +0,07%

USD/CAD C$1,3325 +0,45%