Pending home sales were mostly unmoved in November, but did squeak out a minor gain both on a monthly and annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. Heading into 2018, existing-home sales and price growth are forecast to slow, primarily because of the altered tax benefits of homeownership affecting some high-cost areas.
The Pending Home Sales Index,, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 0.2 percent to 109.5 in November from 109.3 in October. With last month's modest increase, the index remains at its highest reading since June (110.0), and is now 0.8 percent above a year ago.
EUR/USD: 1.1800 (213m), 1.1850-55 (387m), 1.1900 (782m)
USD/JPY: 111.50 (1.0bn), 111.90 (300m), 112.50 (216m), 113.00 (2.9bn), 113.50 (280m)
GBP/USD: 1.3325 (325m), 1.3360-70 (358m), 1.3380-85 (238m)
The consumption indicator fell slightly in November, to 1.67 from 1.68 points. Values from previous months were revised upward by a significant margin in response to surprisingly strong summertime growth in overnight stays. New car registrations gained 1.3% in November, slightly below the average established in previous months.
Looking ahead to 2018, UBS Chief Investment Office Wealth Management expects consumption to grow 1.3%. Solid economic growth and moderately rising employment should continue to support private consumption. Rising inflation has, however, adversely affected real wage growth and, by extension, private consumption growth. Moreover, third-quarter employment growth still remains below the long-term average of 1.1%, only reaching 0.5%.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1997 (2010)
$1.1965 (4000)
$1.1941 (616)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1878
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1838 (4994)
$1.1795 (4702)
$1.1748 (3665)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 5 is 94705 contracts (according to data from December, 26) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (5584);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3489 (2597)
$1.3465 (2478)
$1.3433 (859)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3378
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.3332 (2085)
$1.3291 (2829)
$1.3246 (2802)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 5 is 32925 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (4720);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 5 is 34233 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3300 (2829);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.04 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 26
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,1857 -0,09%
GBP/USD $1,3373 +0,06%
USD/CHF Chf0,9893 +0,03%
USD/JPY Y113,22 -0,04%
EUR/JPY Y134,27 -0,01%
GBP/JPY Y151,42 +0,03%
AUD/USD $0,7727 +0,16%
NZD/USD $0,7038 +0,23%
USD/CAD C$1,2685 -0,28%
05:00 Japan Construction Orders, y/y November 6.7%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y November -4.8% -2.5%
07:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator November 1.54
09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey(Expectations) December 40.7
09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals November 40.488 40.6
15:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) November 3.5% -0.5%
15:00 U.S. Consumer confidence December 129.5 128
23:50 Japan Retail sales, y/y November -0.2% 1.2%
23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) November 0.5% 0.5%
23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) November 5.9% 6%