Noticias del mercado

31 agosto 2012
  • 19:30

    American focus: dollar fell

     

    The Dollar Index fell to a more than three-month low after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he wouldn’t rule out further bond purchases to boost growth and reduce unemployment, which he called a “grave concern.”

    The currency fell against all but one of its 16 most-traded peers after Bernanke told central bankers and economists at an annual forum in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that “nontraditional policies” shouldn’t be ruled out if economic conditions warrant. The dollar also weakened as reports showed business activity in the U.S. expanded more slowly this month and demand for U.S. capital goods dropped in July.

    The pound is set for a monthly gain versus the greenback as a report showed U.K. house prices rose in August, easing concern that the recession is worsening.

  • 16:38

    USD / JPY pair fell to Y78.18, its lowest level since August 13

  • 16:11

    Fed Chairman Bernanke: Fed will provide additional support for the "as-needed"

    The weakness in the labor market is "serious concern" at the Fed

    The economic situation is "far from satisfactory"

    Downside risks from the incentives "manageable"

    I do not exclude non-traditional options for further stimulus

    I doubt that the structural changes are responsible for the high unemployment

    To reduce unemployment, economic growth requires a better

    Little evidence, that may contribute to financial imbalances

    Inflation expectations are stable, despite the large Fed balance

    Fed buying bonds does not harm the work of the bond market

    The first and second quantitative easing prompted an increase of 3%, added 2 million jobs

    Fed bond purchases can still help the economy

    Fed bond purchases so far helped the economy

    Improvement in the labor market "painfully slow"

    Inflation is close to 2%, the target Fed

  • 16:10

    Fed Chairman Bernanke: Fed will provide additional support for the "as-needed"

    • The weakness in the labor market is "serious concern" at the Fed

    • The economic situation is "far from satisfactory"

    • Downside risks from the incentives "manageable"

    • I do not exclude non-traditional options for further stimulus

    • I doubt that the structural changes are responsible for the high unemployment

    • To reduce unemployment, economic growth requires a better

    • Little evidence, that may contribute to financial imbalances

    • Inflation expectations are stable, despite the large Fed balance

    • Fed buying bonds does not harm the work of the bond market

    • The first and second quantitative easing prompted an increase of 3%, added 2 million jobs

    • Fed bond purchases can still help the economy

    • Fed bond purchases so far helped the economy

    • Improvement in the labor market "painfully slow"

    • Inflation is close to 2%, the target Fed

  • 16:00

    U.S.: Factory Orders , July +2.8% (forecast +1.1%)

  • 15:55

    U.S.: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, August 74.3 (forecast 73.7)

  • 15:45

    U.S.: Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index , August 53.0 (forecast 53.6)

  • 15:42

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

    EUR/USD $1.2400, $1.2500, $1.2540, $1.2550, $1.2580, $1.2600

    USD/JPY Y78.40, Y78.50, Y79.20, Y79.30

    GBP/USD $1.5690, $1.5800, $1.5845

    USD/CHF Chf0.9600, Chf0.9500

    AUD/USD $1.0275, $1.0300, $1.0395, $1.0400

  • 15:15

    Representative of the Bank of England Posen: Spain and Italy - are fundamentally strong countries

    • ECB must "fully" to limit bond yields

    • There is room for additional fiscal stimulus in the U.S.

    • It is premature to judge the success of the financing for lending

    • The Fed is interested in receiving information on the funding scheme for lending in the UK

    • Limitation of bond yields can restore market confidence

    • ECB may act to mitigate the debt problems in Spain and Italy

  • 14:30

    Canada: GDP (m/m) , June +0.2% (forecast +0.1%)

  • 14:15

    European session: the euro strengthens

    Data
    01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m July +0.3% +0.4% +0.2%
    01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y July +4.4% +4.4% +4.2%
    05:00 Japan Construction Orders, y/y July +4.6% +8.0% +8.0%
    05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y July -0.2% -10.0% -9.6%
    06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index August -0.7% +0.2% +1.3%
    06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y August -2.6% -2.2% -0.7%
    06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted July -0.1% +0.2% -0.9%
    06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted July +2.9% +0.1% -1.0%
    09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) August +2.4% +2.5% +2.6%
    09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate July 11.2% 11.3% 11.3%

    The dollar fell to eight-week low against the euro in the run-up speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, where he will present his annual speech on monetary policy.
    The U.S. currency weakened against all of its 16 major counterparts after the Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank is serious about conducting further stimulate the economy.
    The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was down by 0.5% to 81.296, and fell by 1.6% for the month.
    The U.S. currency also weakened against the fact that market participants expect a report on factory orders, which are expected to rise in July.
    Also today it was announced that the unemployment rate in the euro area in June to 11.3% recorded at the same time the highest level since 1995.
    The pound strengthened against the dollar, a report showed that house prices in the UK rose in August, reducing fears that the recession worsens.
    The Australian dollar traded near a five-week low on fears of slowing in China, which will hinder economic growth in Australia. Demand for Australian and New Zealand dollar will be limited to the output of the index of purchasing managers in China, which will be presented next week and be able to show the current state of the manufacturing industry, which is expected to be in stagnation. Also today, the RBA said that credit to the private sector grew by 0.2%, compared with growth of 0.3% in June and expectations at 0.4%.

    EUR/USD: during the European session, the pair rose more than a figure, and is now approaching the level of $ 1.2625, which is a maximum of 3 July.
    GBP/USD: pair shows a steady and strong growth and is now trading near the maximum of yesterday
    USD/JPY: the pair managed to update a minimum of 24 August, and then retreated slightly and is now trading at Y78.48

    At 12:30 GMT, Canada will report for a change of GDP in June, changes in GDP for the quarter on an annualized basis in the second quarter. At 13:45 GMT the U.S. will release Chicago PMI index for August. At 13:55 GMT the U.S. will publish an indicator of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in August. At 14:00 GMT the U.S. said the change of volume of industrial orders in July. At the same time will be an economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where an address by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. At 15:55 GMT, the Executive Director of the Bank of England (Financial Stability) Andrew Haldane will deliver a speech at 17:10 GMT and will speak member Monetary Policy Committee Adam Posen.

  • 13:46

    ECB Coeur: There can be no Europe without the euro

    • The ECB will continue to strive to maintain price stability
    • ECB will do whatever is necessary to preserve the integrity of the euro
    • Europe needs more solidarity and overall control of the budget
    • The main risk for the euro is the lack of confidence in the euro itself
  • 13:30

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.2600, $1.2590

    Bids $1.2487, $1.2470, $1.2450, $1.2430

    AUD/USD

    Offers $1.0450, $1.0420, $1.0400, $1.0390, $1.0380/85, $1.0345/50

    Bids $1.0250, $1.0215, $1.1070 Medium demand

    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.5850, $1.5820/25, $1.5800/10

    Bids $1.5765, $1.5750/40, $1.5720, $1.5705/00

    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y99.80, Y99.45/50, Y99.20, Y99.00

    Bids Y97.80/70, Y97.50

    USD/JPY

    Offers Y79.20, Y79.00, Y78.90, Y78.75/80

    Bids Y78.30/25, Y78.20, Y77.90

    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8000, stg0.7980, stg0.7945/55

    Bids stg0.7890, stg0.7875/70, stg0.7860/50

  • 13:16

    ECB Nowotny: Expect lower forecasts for growth in the euro area

    • It is difficult to say how long it would take to countries in crisis, for reform

    • Structural changes in the countries in crisis, will take time

    • The banks remain high refinancing needs in the future

    • ECB may stop immediately all emergency measures

    • Optional emergency measures to stop now

  • 11:20

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

     

     

    EUR/USD $1.2400, $1.2500, $1.2540, $1.2550, $1.2580, $1.2600

     

    USD/JPY Y78.40, Y78.50, Y79.20, Y79.30

    GBP/USD $1.5690, $1.5800, $1.5845

    USD/CHF Chf0.9600, Chf0.9500

    AUD/USD $1.0275, $1.0300, $1.0395, $1.0400


     

  • 10:00

    Asian session: The yen reached its strongest level in a week

     

     

    01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m July +0.3% +0.4% +0.2%

    01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y July +4.4% +4.4% +4.2%

    05:00 Japan Construction Orders, y/y July +4.6%

    05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y July -0.2% -10.0%


    The yen reached its strongest level in a week after Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy delayed seeking a sovereign bailout for his country, spurring demand for haven assets amid Europe’s fiscal turmoil. Rajoy said yesterday after a meeting in Madrid with French President Francois Hollande that his nation won’t seek a second bailout until European leaders make aid conditions clear. Spain locked in as much as 100 billion euros ($125 billion) in international aid for banks last month.

    Japan’s currency is set to gain versus most of its major peers this week as three Spanish regions said they will need emergency loans.

    Moody’s Investors Service said its review of Spain’s debt rating will continue through September and reiterated the risk of a possible downgrade. Moody’s review of Spain’s credit score, which started on June 13, will probably continue through September, the New York based ratings firm said in a statement yesterday. The company reduced Spain to its lowest investment grade level on June 13, cutting it three steps to Baa3 from A3.

    The dollar was supported as investors weigh whether Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will signal new stimulus when he speaks today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded above $1.2500.

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.5780-00.

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell below Y78.50, refreshing week‘s low.


    Core-European data also starts at 0600GMT with German retail sales data, followed at 0700GMT by Spain retail sales. At 0900GMT, EMU and also Italian flash HICP data for August is due, along with the EMU unemployment rate for July. Also at 0900GMT, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure is due to participate in a plenary session entitled "United We Stand", taking place in France. UK data gets things started at 0600GMT with the Nationwide measure of UK House Prices for August. t 1400GMT and providing the main focus of Friday's session, is the much-awaited speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke who speaks at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank Jackson Hole symposium with the subject, "Monetary Policy Since the Crisis." Factory new orders are also due at 1400GMT and are forecast to rise 2.0% in August, as durable goods orders were already reported up 4.2% on a sharp rise in transportation orders. Nondurable goods orders are expected to rise only slightly. Later US data sees the 1900GMT release of Agriculture Prices data. US data for Friday starts at 1345GMT with the MNI Chicago Report, which is followed at 1355GMT by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

  • 09:42

    Forex: Thursday’s review

     

     

    Yesterday the euro continued its yesterday's decline against the dollar on negative sentiment in the market, as well as a sharp decline in stock markets at the opening of trading. At the same time, the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said that Spain will wait a formal request for financial assistance, and the International Monetary Fund said that the European Central Bank should take steps to mitigate the policy. Investors are also slow to cover short dollar positions that are open in the expectation that Bernanke will announce the beginning of the third phase of quantitative easing in Jackson Hole on Friday, as the outcome of this speech is unclear. The single currency rose slightly amid lower borrowing costs in Italy. Italy sold a ten-year treasury bills in the amount of 4.0 billion euros, 3.0-4.0 billion euro target. The ratio of applications to cover was 1.42 versus 1.29 previously.

    On stronger dollar also weighed data on consumer spending, which rose in July for the first time in three months, gaining 0.4%. A separate Labor Department report showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. has changed, from a revised upward index last week.

    During the first half of the day's pound rose against most currencies after data showed that the number of approved applications for mortgage loans increased in July, thus indicating a recovery from the recession in June. Data from the Bank of England showed that the number of mortgage approvals rose to the level of 47,312 in July. But even these positive data have not helped the pound to hold their positions, and as a result the currency plummeted, updating the yesterday's low. This trend was caused by the Prime Minister of Spain, Mariano Raho.

    His speech also contributed to the decline in value the Australian dollar, which lost its position against most major currencies. But the decline began after a government report that the number of approved applications for housing construction fell in July to -17.3%, reaching the minimum values ​​at the same time in the last ten years in the background of the fact that most of the investment now accounts for the mining industry, which is now at its peak. We also learned that the profitability of Australian 10-year bonds continued to decline, fixing the fall for 10 consecutive days, and is on the verge of the long fall, at least since 1990.

    Canadian dollar continues to decline relative to the 16 major currencies after yesterday's data showed that the U.S. economy, which is the largest trading partner, increased by more than the initial estimate. Was supported by the fall in output today's U.S. data, which proved positive.


  • 08:07

    Germany: Retail sales, real adjusted , July -1.0% (forecast +0.1%)

  • 08:07

    Germany: Retail sales, real adjusted , July -0.9% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 08:03

    United Kingdom: Nationwide house price index, y/y, August -0.7% (forecast -2.2%)

  • 08:03

    United Kingdom: Nationwide house price index , August +1.3% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 07:28

    Currencies. Daily history for Aug 30'2012:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,2506 -0,19%

    GBP/USD $1,5783 -0,29%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9601 +0,19%

    USD/JPY Y78,62 -0,09%

    EUR/JPY Y98,31 -0,31%

    GBP/JPY Y124,07 -0,39%

    AUD/USD $1,0293 -0,49%

    NZD/USD $0,7988 -0,19%

    USD/CAD C$0,9922 +0,28%

  • 07:06

    Schedule for today, Friday, Aug 31’2012:

    01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m July +0.3% +0.4% +0.2%

    01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y July +4.4% +4.4% +4.2%

    05:00 Japan Construction Orders, y/y July +4.6%

    05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y July -0.2% -10.0%

    06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index August -0.7% +0.2%

    06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y August -2.6% -2.2%

    06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted July -0.1% +0.2%

    06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted July +2.9% +0.1%

    09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) August +2.4% +2.5%

    09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate July 11.2% 11.3%

    12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) June +0.1% +0.1%

    13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index August 53.7 53.6

    13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (finally) August 73.6 73.7

    14:00 U.S. Factory Orders July -0.5% +1.1%

    14:00 U.S. Jackson Hole Symposium -

    14:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks -

    17:10 United Kingdom MPC Member Posen Speaks -


  • 07:04

    Japan: Construction Orders, y/y, July (forecast +8.0%)

  • 07:03

    Japan: Housing Starts, y/y, July -9.6% (forecast -10.0%)

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