• EUR/USD bears are moving in and testing structure.
• The daily trendline support has been broken.

EUR/USD is flat in the open following a negative day on Friday as the following technical analysis will illustrate. The bears are in the market and structures are being tested.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD´s daily chart shows a tweezer top, a bearish formation that would be expected to be followed by lower highs and lower closes for the week ahead, especially givent he bears are on on the backside of teh bullish trend.

EUR/USD H4 charts

The 4-hour chart shows the price reaching out of the falling wedge, but the advance has been capped:

The M-formation is a topping pattern and a retest of the neckline could be on the cards prior to the next significant downside continuation for the days ahead. 

• USD/CAD bears lurking for the open on OPEC news. 
• OPEC producers announce voluntary oil output cuts.

USD/CAD ended Friday near flat but the Canadian Dollar edged lower against its US counterpart although it held near its strongest level in more than five weeks. The pair fell from a high of 1.3564 to a low of 1.3507 while the Canadian Dollar was supported by domestic data that pointed to stronger economic growth in the first quarter than the Bank of Canada has projected.

The Canadian economy expanded 0.5% in January, eclipsing the 0.3% increase economists had expected, while preliminary data for February showed Gross Domestic Product advancing by a further 0.3%. Meanwhile, slower US consumer spending growth boosted hopes the Federal Reserve would be less aggressive in hiking interest rates. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) also showed inflation is starting to slow in the US. The core price index lifted just 0.3% in February from 0.6% in January. Core inflation is now at 4.6% YoY and the headline level at 5.0% YoY. Personal income increased by 0.3% (from 0.6% in January) while personal spending dropped to 0.2% (from 2.0%).

Meanwhile, the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose to the highest in three weeks on Friday touching $75.68 as a high in the spot market. The weekend news, OPEC producers announce voluntary oil output cuts, is anticipated to lift the price of oil which would be expected to be supportive of CAD. 

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers have announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day.

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital and main financial hub, said it would cut output by 500,000 barrels per day, or bdp, from May until the end of 2023, state media reported.  Russia’s deputy prime minister also said Moscow would extend a voluntary cut of 500,000 barrels a day until the end of 2023. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman and Algeria said they would voluntarily cut output over the same time period. The UAE said it would cut production by 144,000 bpd, Kuwait announced a cut of 128,000 bpd while Iraq said it would cut output by 211,000 bpd and Oman announced a cut of 40,000 bpd. Algeria said it would cut its output by 48,000 bpd.

In a statement, the Saudi energy ministry said that the kingdom’s voluntary cut was a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.

This is expected to cause an immediate rise in prices for the open. West Texas Intermediate, WTI, crude oil rose to the highest in three weeks on Friday touching $75.68 as a high in the spot market.

• AUD/USD´s bearish engulfment on the last 4-hour candle is eyed.
• Bears eye a break of 0.6661 with 0.6625 seen below there guarding the 0.6550s. 

The Australian dollar traded around 30 pips on either side of around 0.67 the figure vs. the greenback on Friday and ended the month little changed, in a period marked by constantly shifting outlooks for interest rates and the banking sector globally.

Meanwhile, easing domestic inflationary pressures leave a question mark over the Reserve Bank of Australia´s interest rate meeting this week. The RBA stated in its latest minutes it would reconsider the case for a pause at the April fixing to reassess the economic outlook.

Looking at the technicals, there is also a downside bias as follows:

AUD/USD weekly chart

The bearish pennant is a compelling feature across the weekly and daily time frames. 

AUD/USD daily chart

Failures below 0.6720 keep the bearish bias in place. 

AUD/USD H4 chart

The bearish engulfment, BE, on the last 4-hour candle could be the catalyst for a firm break of structure for the opening sessions near 0.6661 with 0.6625 eyed below there guarding the 0.6550s.