• NZD/USD opened in a bearish gap despite some prospects of Gazprom shipments to the EU.
• Gazprom said that it would increase its shipments of gas to Europe via Ukraine.

NZD/USD is under pressure from the off at the start of the week following an opening gap to the downside to print a low of 0.6076. The bird has finished Friday's play in a correction and higher in New York as asset markets recovered in the wake of the small uptick in the US unemployment rate and a disappointment in wages. 

The greenback eased from a 20-year high on Friday following the Unemployment Rate coming in at 3.7% vs. 3.5% expected and Average Hourly Earnings missing the mark as well, at 0.3% month on month vs. 0.4% expected. The market initially dialled down its expectations of a 75 basis point hike from the Federal Reserve at the next meeting later this month, however, the Participation Rate was higher, potentially explaining the higher Unemployment Rate.

The market was volatile around the report but the Fed funds futures were unchanged and were pricing about a 75% chance that the Fed hikes rates by 75 basis points this month, according to Refinitiv data, which could be supportive for the greenback in the lead into the Federal Reserve this month. 

Looking ahead, partial local data will be giving clues about Q2 GDP, as analysts at ANZ bank explained,  but argued that FX markets will remain very globally focussed. The news the Russian energy giant, Gazprom, said that it would increase its shipments of gas to Europe via Ukraine, according to media reports, should be positive for risk. The company said it would ship some 42.7 million cubic meters of natural gas through Ukraine to Europe on Saturday, Reuters reported. 

Bullish for the open, The Russian energy giant, Gazprom has been reported by Politico to have said on Friday that it would not restart the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany as planned.

''Russia’s Gazprom said on Saturday it would increase its shipments of gas to Europe via Ukraine, according to media reports.

The development comes after the Russian energy giant said on Friday that it would not restart the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany as planned for Saturday, after a three-day maintenance break. 

The company said it would ship some 42.7 million cubic meters of natural gas through Ukraine to Europe on Saturday, Reuters reported. Flows from the entry point at Sudzha were slightly higher compared to Friday’s 41.3 million cubic meters, but that doesn't make up for the shortfall in gas that was expected to flow from Nord Stream 1 on Saturday, the agency said.''

This is a positive development for markets and particularly the euro which has been struggling due to the economic ramifications for the eurozone on the back of the Ukraine crisis on its doorstep and reliance on the Russian energy supply. 

Europe has been accusing Russia of weaponising energy supplies in what Moscow has called an "economic war" with the West. However, Moscow has blamed Western sanctions and technical issues for supply disruptions.

The sentiment could be helpful to a battered euro at the start of the week that is otherwise in the hands of the bears:

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bears eye a move into test 0.9900

• EUR/USD remains in the hands of the bears that eye a test of 0.9900. 
• The bears need a break of 0.9940 support to open the path lower.

It will be an interesting start to the week considering the conflicting technical landscape for the US dollar and EUR/USD in the following analysis of the charts. Nevertheless, it could be a quiet start considering the Nonfarm Payrolls and volatility that would be expected to taper off due to the US long weekend ahead of this week's European Central Bank meeting. 

Looking at the US dollar first, the 4-hour Shark pattern is a harmonic formation and the price would be expected to decline from the CD leg:

The index is already meeting resistance in a 20-year high and a break of supporting a touch below 109 the figure could open the gates for a significant decline through the 108s. In effect, this would be expected to see the euro rally into and around the ECB meeting this week:

However, the current environment on the 4-hour chart for the euro is arguably bearish. The price dropped heavily from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement area that met with the resistance of the M-formation's neckline. The tweezer top is also a bearish feature and a move to test support could be on the cards at around 0.9900 in a 50 pip decline for the start of the week should 0.9940 give out. 

• AUD/USD bulls are trying to hold onto the 0.68 figure ahead of the open.
• The week ahead could be bullish for the Aussie with the RBA expected to hike and technicals in favour. 

AUD/USD ended last Friday higher by around 0.3% on the day after climbing from a low of 0.6779 to a high of 0.6855, closing around 0.68065. However, worries about demand from China and Europe are weighing on key resource prices with China locking down the important industrial city of Chengdu at the same time that the energy crisis in Europe risks sending the euroland into a recession.

With that being said, the Aussie can benefit from higher prices for coal and LNG, something which the Reserve Bank of Australia will be taking into consideration this week when it meets to decide upon the OCR.  Despite the weakness in commodities, the RBA index of commodity export prices is still up 18% for the year so far owing to the rising prices of energy and the nation's net energy export status. The central bank is on Sept. 6 and the market and the board is leaning heavily toward a 50-basis-point move to 2.35% with an additional rate hike in the pipeline.

We & the market expect the RBA to hike the cash rate 50bps at its Sep Board Meeting, analysts at TD Securities said. ''The cash rate remains below neutral and data has generally been firm. Of more interest is whether Governor Lowe mirrors an urgency to get on top of inflation like the Fed/BoC/RBNZ.''

Meanwhile, the US dollar eased from a 20-year high on Friday following a disappointment in the Nonfarm Payrolls that showed that US hiring had climbed more than expected in August, albeit, wage growth moderated and the Unemployment Rate ticked higher. The Unemployment Rate came in at 3.7% vs. 3.5% expected and Average Hourly Earnings missed the mark as well, at 0.3% month on month vs. 0.4% expected.

The market initially dialled down its expectations of a 75 basis point hike from the Federal Reserve at the next meeting later this month, however, the Participation Rate was higher, potentially explaining the higher Unemployment Rate. to this extent, there was a lot of volatility around the report. Fed funds futures were unchanged after the jobs report and are pricing about a 75% chance that the Fed hikes rates by 75 basis points this month, according to Refinitiv data, which could be supportive for the greenback in the lead into the Federal Reserve this month. 

We will be in thin trading due to the long North American Labor Day weekend, so technically, we could see some further corrective price action across the charts, with the US dollar hanging at the edge of a key support structure and the Aussie balancing on the 0.68 round number. 

AUD/USD technical analysis

The price is balanced around the 0.68 figure and should support hold, or even the 0.6775 level to the downside, then there are bullish prospects towards the mid-week highs on the way towards 0.6880/6900. The Shark on the following US dollar chart is also adding fuel to the bullish bias in AUD/USD: