Oil prices retreated from a session low, but still continue to show a moderate decline. Support oil had weaker dollar on the report on retail sales. Meanwhile, the growth of prices holding back a report on US crude stocks.

As previously reported, the US retail sales fell in December by 0.9% compared to the previous month. This is the maximum reduction from January 2014. Analysts had expected the rate increase by 0.2%. We also add that in November, according to revised data, retail sales rose by 0.4%, not 0.7% as previously indicated. Drop in sales last month was noted in 9 of the 13 major categories of retail goods, including electronics and clothing. According to experts, Americans prefer to postpone, rather than spend the money saved on the fall in fuel prices. To increase consumer demand in the United States requires further improvement in the labor market, as well as an increase in salaries. By the end of 2014 total retail sales in the US rose by 4%.

As for the report on reserves, it has shown that commercial oil reserves in the US last week rose to 5389 thousand. Barrels - up to 387,782 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 3,171 thousand. Barrels and amounted to 240,334 million barrels. Commercial distillate inventories rose by 2,925 thousand. Barrels, reaching 139,851 million barrels. Economists had expected an increase of oil reserves by 1750 thousand. Barrels, gasoline inventories increase at 3,750 th. Barrels and distillate stocks increase for 2100 thousand. Barrels.

Market participants also analyzed the last monthly report from the US Department of Energy on the short-term prospects for the oil market. According to analysts, this year the average price of WTI crude oil amount to 54.58 dollar against 93.26 dollars in 2014. December forecast assumes that the average price of WTI crude oil this year reached 62.75 dollars. Ministry unveiled forecasts for 2016. It is expected that next year the average price of WTI crude oil amount to $ 71.

In addition, the Ministry of Energy expects the average price of Brent crude oil in 2015 and in 2016 reached 57.58 dollars and $ 75, respectively, against 99.02 dollars last year. December forecast assumes that the average price of Brent crude oil will make 68.08 dollars this year.

Impact on world oil prices also continued to weak outlook from Goldman Sachs. Bank experts expect lower prices for WTI at six months and a year to 39 and 65 dollars per barrel 75 and $ 80 per barrel, respectively. Forecasts for Brent reduced to $ 43 per barrel for six months and $ 70 per barrel for the year to 85 and $ 90 per barrel, respectively. Analysts Societe Generale also worsened the outlook for oil prices in 2015: $ 15 - up to $ 55 per barrel.

The cost of the February futures on US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) dropped to 45.90 dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

February futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mix fell $0.38 to $ 46.33 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices today rose markedly, reaching with 12-week high, as the sharp fall in the stock markets and commodity markets prompted investors to buy the metal as a safe haven. Also affected the course of trading weakening of the US currency.

"Gold retreats slightly due to the elimination of positions in commodity markets in general," - said a trader in Sydney, adding that the precious metal will meet technical resistance at $ 1,244. "Prices could rise due to instability in the stock markets, but it will not be easy. In the near future quotations may fall to $ 1,220, then return to growth."

Concern in the financial markets has intensified after the World Bank has lowered growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016, while noting that the improvement of the US economy and low fuel prices could not compensate for the disappointing results in Europe and China. In 2015, the world economy will grow by 3% compared with an earlier forecast of growth of 3.4% in June. Meanwhile, the lender raised its forecast for US economic growth this year to 3.2% from 3% in June. According to forecasts, the euro zone economy will grow by 1.1% in 2015 compared with 1.8% expected in June earlier. China's growth was 7.1% compared to 7.2% projected in October and 7.5% in June. Japan's economy will grow by 1.2% compared to 1.3%, as mentioned in June. WB also reduced the forecast of world economic growth in 2016 to 3.3% from 3.5%.

As for the dollar, it has now reached a four-week low against the yen, which was associated with the release of disappointing data on US sales. It is learned that US sales in the retail trade and restaurants fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in December compared with a month earlier. It was the largest monthly decline since January 2014. Excluding sales of gasoline purchases fell 0.4%, while expenses decreased by 1% except for the volatile categories of vehicles. Economists had expected overall sales to grow by 0.2%, while sales excluding autos will rise by 0.1% in December. For the entire 2014 sales were up 4%. It was a bit weaker than the 4.1% growth in 2013 and the lowest annual growth since the recession ended in 2009. Falling gasoline prices played a role in the index for 2014. With the exception of gasoline, retail sales rose by 4.8% last year.

On the physical gold market buyers have become more cautious after the price was not retained on the highs of the previous session. Mark-ups in China, the largest consumer of gold fell to $ 3 per ounce to the global benchmark from $ 04.05 on Tuesday.

The cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1238.00 dollars per ounce.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate continue extended losses today for a fourth consecutive day trading near the lowest level in six years. Today the World Bank lowered its economic growth outlook for 2015 and 2016 to 3.0% respectively 3.3% citing weaker economies in Europe, japan and other major economies.

Yesterday OPEC officials re-affirmed that the organization is going to fight for market share, blaming the U.S. shale drillers of oversupplying the market. Mohammed al-Mazroui statet that the "strategy will not change" at a Gulf energy conference in Abu Dhabi and that high-cost producers should be the first to cut production. According to Kuwait Oil Minister Ali Al-Omair only increased global economic growth can absorb the glut estimated at 1.8 million barrels a day.

Yesterday data showed API U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels in the week ended January 9.

Market participants look ahead to the official U.S. Crude Oil Inventories due at 15:30 GMT to get further information on the strength of demand of the world's largest consumer of oil.

Brent Crude lost -0.11%, currently trading at USD46.54 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate declined by -0.50% currently quoted at USD45.66 adding to this week's massive sell-off.

Gold prices further declined in today's session after reaching a 12-week high at USD1,243.90 as investors weighed the global economic outlook, dampened by the World Bank's outlook for 2015 and 2016, against higher U.S. benchmark rates. Normally, the rout in oil and copper prices should have boosted the demand for a haven asset but gold declined as investors took profit after the recent rally. A stronger U.S. dollar further added pressure on the gold price. The precious metal is currently quoted at USD1,228.10, -0,18% a troy ounce.

Gold in recent days has been supported, as political uncertainty in Greece and concerns about the impact of falling oil prices on the global economy led investors to buy the precious metal. Also growing speculations that FED will keep rates on hold for longer after mixed U.S. job data with a surprise drop in hourly wages last Friday supported the metal.

GOLD currently trading at USD1,228.10

REUTERS

Draghi says ECB needs expansive monetary policy: paper

(Reuters) - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said a loose monetary policy is needed to achieve price stability in the euro zone and the Governing Council is determined to deliver this.

With euro zone consumer prices turning negative in December for the first time in five years, there are growing doubts among policymakers whether the ECB's stimulus implemented so far will enough to prevent the euro zone from slipping into deflation.

To achieve the ECB's medium-term inflation target of below but close to 2 percent, the ECB must "keep interest rates low and work towards an expansive monetary policy that accompanies growth," Draghi told Die Zeit in an in advanced release of an interview to be published on Thursday.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/14/us-ecb-policy-draghi-idUSKBN0KN0N720150114

BLOOMBERG

Norway to Tackle Oil Slump Via Krone Buffer, Government Says

Norway is embracing a slump in the krone that Finance MinisterSiv Jensen says will act as a buffer to protect western Europe's biggest oil exporter from plunging crude prices.

A weaker currency, together with monetary policy measures, will be a first line of defense around the economy before the government considers additional measures, Jensen said yesterday in an interview following a speech in Oslo.

A weaker krone "is one of the cushions that we have," she said. Once the full effect of the exchange rate has been felt, then "we are willing, and able, to put other measures forward," she said.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-14/norway-to-tackle-oil-slump-via-krone-buffer-government-says-1-.html

BLOOMBERG

Canadian Dollar Falls to C$1.20 First Time Since 2009 on Crude

Canada's dollar weakened past C$1.20 per greenback for the first time since April 2009 on concern a continued slump in crude oil, the nation's biggest export, will damp economic growth.

Less than two weeks into the year, the currency has already lost more than 3 percent against its U.S. counterpart as speculation a global oversupply of crude that's already cut the commodity's price by more than half since June will drive it down further. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, who will release new economic forecasts next week, said in December the slide in oil will cut about a third of a percentage point from growth this year.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-14/canadian-dollar-falls-to-c-1-20-first-time-since-2009-on-crude.html

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 46.01 +0.26%

Gold 1,231.80 -0.21%