Gold has capitalized on falling US T-bond yields and looks to extend its rally north of the multi-month downtrend, strategists at TD Securities report. 

Gold is itching for a breakout 

“Gold prices are set to challenge the multi-month downtrend from all-time highs. Counter-intuitively, this comes after a strong Nonfarm Payrolls report.” 

“The central bank has reiterated that its tools cannot help ease the temporary supply constraints that have ultimately driven inflation higher. In this context, markets for central bank hikes are repricing. In this context, US real yields are plummeting, in support of gold prices.” 

“A breakout north of the multi-month downtrend could help the trend of ETF outflows reverse, powering gold prices even higher.”

“Unfortunately for the bulls, we expect that a recent CTA buying program has run its course, suggesting algorithmic trend follower flow will not lend its support.”