• The risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar falls as market mood dampened linked to COVID-19 woes.
• US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 184K, better than the 215K estimated by analysts.
• NZD/USD Price Forecast: Threatening of breaking below the YTD low at 0.6736, which would expose November’s 2020 low at 0.6589.

The NZD/USD shed Wednesday’s gains, trading at 0.6785, during the New York session, amid risk-off market mood attributed to COVID-19 restrictions across Europe while investors assess the economic impact of the newly discovered omicron variant. Furthermore, according to Bloomberg, the omicron variant is four times more transmissible than delta in a new study.

In the meantime, during the overnight session, the NZD/USD pair peaked around the December 8 high at 0.6818, retreating below the 0.6800 figure down to 0.6780s, as market mood conditions dampened by the abovementioned causes, increasing demand for safe-haven assets.

In the US, the Department of Labor reported that the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on December 3 rose to 184K, lower than the 215K, declining the most since 1969, beating economists’ estimations. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six rivals, is recovering from Wednesday’s losses, up 0.31%, sitting at 96.19, a headwind for the New Zealand dollar.

Therefore, the NZD/USD trader's focus turns to Friday’s release of US inflation figures, which in case of being higher, would increase the odds of a faster bond-taper by the Federal Reserve. 

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

After facing strong resistance at 0.6818, the NZD/USD pair is approaching the December 8 cycle low around 0.6766. The pair has a downward bias, with the daily moving averages (DMA’s) located well above the spot price. Despite the previously mentioned, the NZD/USD is approaching November’s monthly low at 0.6772, which could lead to further losses if it is broken.

In that outcome, the first support would be the YTD low, December 7  at 0.6736, followed by the 0.6700 figure. A break below that level could send the pair tumbling towards November’s 2020 monthly low at 0.6589