The coffee market has already suffered from drought and frost damage. How much of an impact this will have on next season’s crop will depend on precipitation over the rainy season. Given the uncertainty, coffee prices are likely to remain elevated until the market gets a better idea of how big Brazil’s next crop will be, strategists at ING report.

2021/22 global coffee deficit

“While we still wait for what Omicron will throw at us, if most economies continue easing emergency restrictions, then demand is likely to continue growing in 2021/22.”

“For the 2021/22 coffee year, demand is expected to outstrip supply. This will be driven by a combination of further growth in demand, along with a Brazilian crop weighed down by frost and possibly drought. However, much will depend on precipitation in the coming months.”

“The expectation of a deficit in 2021/22 and the uncertainty on how big this deficit could be suggest that prices should remain well supported.”