In the view of economists at ING, the Norwegian krone may emerge as the surprise outperformer thanks to surging gas prices. 

Extra support from natural gas

“There is some positive seasonality factor for NOK. On top of this, European gas prices continue to soar, this time due to a halt in Russian gas flows from a key route to Germany. Weather forecasts suggest the Christmas week is set to be a particularly cold one in Europe, which should also keep natural gas prices supported.”

“We think NOK may see some delayed benefit from the Norges Bank’s December hike and while growing risk aversion will continue to give some support to EUR/NOK, we could see the pair edge lower in the next two weeks.”