The latest signals from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russia Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Alexeyevich Ryabkov hint that Washington and Moscow may fail to overcome the Ukraine-linked geopolitical fears during this week’s diplomatic talks starting from Monday.

US Sec. of State Blinken said, “It's difficult to see progress when Russia holds a gun to Ukraine's head.”

“NATO troop withdrawal from Eastern Europe is not on the table,” adds the US diplomat.

Blinked concludes, “A breakthrough with Russia is unlikely this week.”

On the other hand, Russia’s Ryabkov mentioned, “It is entirely possible diplomacy with the US could cease abruptly after a single meeting on Monday.”

“Russia won't make any concessions whatsoever under pressure,” stated Russia’s Deputy Foreign Ryabkov.

Elsewhere, reports of the US weighing an export control for Russia should it invade Ukraine also challenge the market’s hopes over the Russia-Ukraine piece. Talks that the US and its allies are discussing trade restrictions against Russia and the US is considering limiting the technology transfer to Moscow were also taking rounds and raising market fears.

Axios came out with the update while saying, "A group of Russia experts urged National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to send more arms to the Ukrainians when he spoke with them ahead of this week’s high-stakes diplomatic meetings with Russian officials."

FX implications

The news could weigh on the market sentiment, which in turn could derail the latest recovery moves of commodities and Antipodeans.

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