Will EUR/USD break above 1.1500? Economists at ING think the balance of risks for the pair is still skewed to the downside, primarily on the back of ECB-Fed monetary policy divergence, and a move above 1.1500 in EUR/USD seems unwarranted.

Eyes on ECB minutes this week

“We do not trust the current USD softness, and we are thus inclined to think that EUR/USD is due for a correction rather than another leg higher.”

“Most of the focus in the week ahead will be on the ECB minutes from the December meeting: a chance to gauge the strength of the hawkish bloc in the policy discussion. Still, any hawkish headline should be filtered by the fact that the Omicron situation in Europe was not as bad when the meeting took place compared to the following weeks.”

“We expect EUR/USD to slide back to 1.12/1.13 in the near term, but for next week, we’d already welcome a stabilisation below 1.1500 as a sign that the bullish push on the pair was temporary.”