Despite completing a bearish “reversal day” on Friday, EUR/USD maintains a near-term base above 1.1387. Analysts at Credit Suisse continue to look for a deeper recovery to 1.1513/24 and eventually 1.1597/1.1631, which ideally caps.

Strength stays seen as corrective

“Resistance is seen initially at 1.1464, then 1.1483/89, above which should see resistance next at the lows from October and November at 1.1513/24. Although we would expect this to cap at first we see scope for a move above here in due course to see a test of what we view as more important resistance at 1.1597/1.1631 – the 38.2% retracement of the May/November 2021 fall, 38.2% of the entire 2021 fall and November highs. Our bias would be for this to then cap for an eventual resumption of the core downtrend.”

“Key support stays seen at the ‘neckline’ to the base and the 13-day exponential and 55-day simple averages at 1.1387/54, which we look to hold. A closing break would suggest the base has already been negated, for a fall back to 1.1280/72.”