• USD/TRY holds lower ground near seven-day low after breaking a three-week-old support line the previous day.
• Oversold RSI conditions test bears targeting mid-January lows.
• 50-SMA, monthly horizontal resistance adds to the upside filters.

USD/TRY bears are finally in motion after fortnight-long inaction, grinding lower around $13.30, down 0.10% intraday during early Tuesday.

The Turkish lira (TRY) pair’s latest losses could be linked to the quote’s clear downside break of an ascending trend line from January 12, around $13.38 at the latest.

It should be noted, however, that the oversold RSI conditions challenge USD/TRY bears bracing for the mid-January lows near $13.15.

In a case where USD/TRY remains pressured below the $13.15 level, the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracements of December 23, 2021, to January 03, 2022 upside, respectively near $12.53 and $12.10, will gain the market’s attention.

Meanwhile, corrective pullback remains elusive until the quote stays below the previous support line near $13.38.

Following that, the 50-SMA and a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early January, near $13.50 and $13.68 in that order, should lure USD/TRY buyers before directing them to the yearly peak of $13.94.

USD/TRY: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further declines expected