• USD/IDR extends pullback from intraday top, probes three-day uptrend.
• Indonesia Q4 GDP rose past market forecast, prior to 5.02%.
• Traders take a breather as mixed sentiment, light calendar confuse traders after a volatile week.

USD/IDR justifies upbeat Indonesia Q4 GDP release by easing to $14,400 during early Monday in Europe. Even so, the Indonesia rupiah (IDR) pair remains directionless amid mixed clues and a light calendar elsewhere.

Indonesia’s Q4 GDP crossed 4.9% market forcasts and 3.51% previous readouts to 5.2% YoY figures. Reuters quote high commodity prices and the loosening of anti-virus curbs as the key catalysts for the Asian nation’s upbeat GDP figures.

Alternatively, the US dollar also struggles to keep Friday’s rebound as the US Treasury yields retreat from a two-year high amid indecision over the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded from a three-week low after the monthly employment data release from the US. That said, the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 467K versus the median forecast for a 150K rise and 510K revised prior while the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.0% from 3.9% in December, compared to expectations for a no-change figure. It’s worth noting, however, that the U6 Underemployment Rate extended the south-run to 7.1% from 7.3% previous readouts. Also encouraging was Average Hourly Earnings that jumped strongly to 5.7% versus 4.9%.

However, sluggish figures of inflation expectations, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, tested Fed hawks afterward.

Even so, geopolitical tension linked to Russia and macro fears of inflation keeps the DXY on the front foot ahead of Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. Additionally, Fedspeak and geopolitics are extra catalysts to determine USD/IDR moves, not to forget China’s reaction to the macro changes that happened during its Lunar New Year holidays.

Technical analysis

Unless crossing a three-month-old horizontal area surrounding $14,455-40, USD/IDR remains on the seller’s radar with the 200-DMA level near $14,335-30 acting as immediate support.