Economists at ING expect a 50bp hike in February by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) with upside risk, a 75bp hike. The EUR/PLN pair is forecast to at 4.48 by the end of the quarter.

Gearing up for a hawkish NBP

“We now expect a 50bp hike from the NBP tomorrow – taking the policy rate to 2.75% – with the risk of a 75bp hike. Additionally, it seems that the Polish government is also softening its stance against Brussels and making more conciliatory noises, no doubt to strengthen Western alliances over Ukraine but perhaps also with one eye on the release of EU recovery funds.”

“We see EUR/PLN ending the quarter at 4.48.”