According to Reuters citing a Senior Western Intelligence official, there is no credible sign of Russian de-escalation. Russian military exercises are currently at their peak stage, the official warned, and the risk of a Russian attack on Ukraine will remain elevated for at least the rest of the month. The intelligence official said that the greatest risk of conflict or an unintended military accident was right now and that "I expect things to be really confusing and ambiguous for the next couple of weeks". The official warned the next stage of Russian military drills would be ballistic missile launches and that Russia could attack Ukraine with "essentially no, or little-to-no, warning". 

Market Reaction

USD/RUB, the best proxy to watch to gauge how markets are feeling about Russia/Ukraine war risk, doesn't seem to have reacted to the latest reports from Reuters.