The most recent flareup of concerns surrounding Russia supplies have once again placed prices on a trajectory toward $100/b. Economists at TD Securities expect Brent Oil to hit this level before trading back lower towards the mid-$80s.

Brent to move into the mid-$80s in the latter part of 2022 

“If there is an invasion and severe sanctions are imposed on Russia, there would likely be additional substantial price spikes, as supplies are tight, demand will accelerate as COVID-19 restrictions are put aside and driving season approaches.” 

“If there is confirmed evidence of Russia pulling back troops from the border, we could see prices head toward the mid-$80s.”

“Crude may hit $100/b if the probability of severe sanctions against Russia rises, triggering a downgrade in its production estimates. After that, a selloff is expected which would take Brent into the mid-$80s in the latter part of 2022, as both supply and demand respond to the price shock.”